US consumption: 2019 off to a poor start

In December, US consumers reduced their purchases of goods on a scale unparalleled since the financial crisis. The rebound in January was anaemic. Two factors seem to be involved: a negative wealth effect due to the equity markets sell-off and a spike in uncertainty caused by the government shutdown. Since these two shocks are behind us or corrected, a sharp increase in February is possible (depending on disruptions in weather conditions). The fundamentals of consumption still ap...