US disinflation: energy helping a lot but not enough

Energy prices evolve according to supply, demand and inventory conditions, but also - and this is their specific characteristic - according to the vagaries of geopolitics. OPEC+'s decision to cut its oil production, just as the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine is easing, introduces an element of uncertainty. That said, energy prices paid by US households are set to fall further in the near term, which could take about 2-3 percentage points off headline inflation by June. G...