US: economic impact of the war in Ukraine

On the face of it, the US economy has little to fear directly from the Russian-Ukrainian war. Its trade exposure to the adversaries is quite minimal. If we add the effects of a possible drop in demand from EU countries, the trade risk remains low, less than half a point of GDP. In the longer term, some sectors could benefit from the situation (energy, defence). That said, this event is far from insignificant. A shock of uncertainty can weigh on the confidence of agents and market...