US employment at stall speed

Between 2022 and 2025, the labour market has moved from extreme overheating to a more balanced situation. We have no official data for the past two months, but all of the alternative information points in the direction of a further weakening, bringing the labour market up to stall speed. From there, if nothing is done, there is a risk that the adjustment will become sharper, leading to a reduction in the workforce and fresh pressure on household purchasing power. Economic uncertainty has fallen since its peak in April, but remains high. A cut in policy rates next month is not a miracle cure, but would be welcome. A majority of the FOMC is now in favour.