US growth: which data should we believe?

For most of 2023, the "hard" data and the "soft" data "(surveys) have diverged slightly. Whilst consumer expenditure figures depict a vigorous US economy, business climate indices describe activity that reflects weak growth, or is even on the verge of stagnation. What are we to believe? Experience shows no systematic bias in the spending figures. Even if they may be revised, they have proved to be fairly accurate in real time. They are unlikely to significantly overestimate the “...