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US: have the recession models got it wrong? No (or not yet)
For over a year now, the US economy has been slowing on a soft landing path, not a recession path. The difference is the response of the labour market. In a recession, we expect a sharp contraction in jobs and a surge in unemployment, but not in a soft landing. Will the trajectory change in the coming months? To shed some light on this question, we have updated our raft of probabilistic recession models. The coincident models are still mute, while the forward-looking models are p...
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Oddo BHF
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
Bruno Cavalier
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