US labour market health check: no cause for alarm

Non-farm payrolls are considered to be the most important coincident indicator in the US business cycle. No recession without a contraction in employment. No durable expansion without a rebound. Intermediate situations are more difficult to assess. In the aftermath of a recession, there is often a "jobless recovery". Before a recession, job creation slows down significantly. In May, job creation disappointed. Is this a warning signal that the expansion is about to end or a normal...