US: macro consequences of deportations

Increasing trade tariffs, cutting taxes, expelling undocumented immigrants, these were Donald Trump’s three main campaign promises in 2024. The third point had received little attention until now, but the recent riots in Los Angeles, following deportation operations, have allowed Trump to mix TV show (deployment of the National Guard) and politics. Opinion polls suggest that a majority of Americans approve of these deportations. The number of undocumented workers is estimated at 8 million. Certain sectors (agriculture, construction, leisure) are heavily dependent on this workforce. Therefore, deportations are potentially a negative shock on the supply of labour and activity.