US: soft landing or hard landing?

The FOMC this week announced the first in what promises to be an extended series of policy rate hikes. While not as aggressive as in 1994, the Fed’s current plan marks a notable tightening in the space of just a few months, in reaction to much more pronounced inflationary tensions. Will this push the economy back into recession? All the world’s gurus give their probability of recession, and to be heard, it is best to give the highest level. History shows that there is no iron law...