US: surprises, surprises

For the past month, the positive "surprises" in US macro data have matched the negative "surprises" recorded slightly earlier. This shows the extent to which the usual benchmarks have disappeared. The jump in retail sales is unprecedented, but so too is the collapse that preceded it. The rebound in supply has begun, but it has been slower. All told, it is likely that the shock to real GDP in Q2 will be less disastrous than feared initially. What happens next partly depends on the...