US: the risk is deflation not inflation

At first glance, the pandemic may have ambiguous effects on the prices of goods and services. Initially, when only China was at a standstill, there were fears that disruptions in production chains would cause shortages and higher prices. Since the lockdown has become widespread, there has been a dramatic drop in demand (e.g. for oil). The effect is sharply disinflationary, with the risk, if a resumption of activity does not materialise without too much delay, of sliding into defl...