US: what do our recession models say?

The Fed is no longer targeting a neutral monetary policy, as it did a few months ago, but a clearly restrictive stance to moderate domestic demand, credit and ultimately prices. At first sight, this increases the risk of recession. In our slew of models, most are currently silent on this risk but two are already on red alert (oil, stock market). The labour market is showing few signs of weakness for the time being, but it is doubtful that this will continue with the US economy in...