US: will disinflation materialise in 2026?

In 2025, as in 2024, disinflation failed to make any progress in the United States. For five years now, consumer prices have been rising faster than the Fed's target. If this situation persists in 2026, it could affect the macro and political landscape. First, households remain highly concerned about their purchasing power, which is worrying the White House with the mid-term elections looming. The Republicans had accused Joe Biden of causing the inflation shock. The backlash now sees Democrats accusing Trump of being responsible for an "affordability crisis". Second, the Fed could resist extending the rate cut if there are no tangible signs of a return to the inflation target.