Report
Viridien : Testing the post Shearwater model in low oil prices scenarios
Viridien has posted a good set of Q3 2025 results, supported by the strong performance in both its GEO and EDA segment. EBITDA has also benefited from the termination of the agreement with Shearwater, cost saving initiatives at the SMO segment, and important M&A fees. With the company reaffirming its FY 2025 FCF guidance of at least $ 100m, we focus on FY 2026. While we have lowered our EBITDA estimates amid lower oil prices, we expect FCF generation to remain strong. Collection of receivables from Pemex, a potential asset sale, and lower interest payments will offset the lower y/y EBITDA.Our base scenario does not imply a significant decrease in demand (investments will remain to maintain production levels). Nevertheless, we have built some scenarios assuming different EBITDA levels to assess the flexibility of Viridien’s FCF capabilities post Shearwater agreement. So far, while on a BoC scenario we see negative FCF, the current liquidity position is more than enough to cover the potential cash outflows.
Underlying
VIRIDIEN
Provider
Oddo BHF
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
Mateo Salcedo
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