What to make of the current consensus of forecasters

Taking account of the sharper-than-expected upturn in activity, forecasters working for central banks, governments or the private sector are tending to revise their economic outlook upwards. On the one hand, these forecasts automatically reflect the catch-up already achieved. On the other hand, this also reflects the fact that economic policy is likely to remain stimulative for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, it is clear the output gap created by the shock from the pandemic ...