When will the first Fed policy rate cut occur ?

If we look at a typical monetary policy cycle over six decades, the Fed hikes its policy rates over 19 months, then pauses for 8 months, and then cuts rates. This provides a point of comparison for the current cycle, two specific features of which nonetheless warrant highlighting. On the one hand, the rise in policy rates is much faster than normal: the tightening phase could therefore be shorter. But on the other hand, inflation, despite its recent decline, remains very high: th...