Where is the French budget deficit headed... towards 4% or 6%?

Three months ago, which is an eternity in terms of the life expectancy of governments in France, the budget debate focused on ways to reduce the cost of the welfare state, particularly pension costs. The prime minister at the time broke a taboo by referring to the "comfort of baby boomers". Whilst the details of Bayrou's plan were debatable, at least the direction seemed right. Today, many politicians want to roll back the 2022 reform that raised the retirement age by two years – a minimum given the imbalance between contributors and pensioners. If this reform were to be sacrificed for political reasons, the credibility of French budget plans would be virtually zero.