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​We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 


We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

  • Only publishing research from veteran analysts
  • Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
  • Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

 

Barbara Gray
  • Barbara Gray
EUR 261.08
AMZN Amazon.com Inc...

THE UNITED REINDEER SERVICE

Brady and Adam had just finished hanging their "stockings by the chimney with care in hopes that Saint Nicholas soon would be there" when my iPhone buzzed and I saw an email from the North Pole advising me that there may be a delivery delay as the elves had loaded their gifts onto the wrong sleigh. So, instead of settling down for "a long winter's nap", I tossed and turned all night. I woke up early Christmas morning and was dismayed to discover Santa hadn't touched the milk and cookies and, eve...

AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
01/08/18 January 8, 2018 5 EN
Barbara Gray
  • Barbara Gray
EUR 522.14
TGT Target Corporat...

Experience Is the New Moat

Although Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods blows open the dam protecting the supplier and structural channels, most of the value erosion has taken place along the customer channel, as evidenced by the year-to-date performance of the 289 companies lying in the 21 sub-industries along each of the three channels: ï‚· Overall: -2.6% versus +18.3% for S&P 500 (negative delta of 2,090 basis points) ï‚· By Channel: Customer (-13.2%), Supplier (+2.6%), Structural (+7.4%) To protect themselves from the...

TGT TARGET CORPORATION
01/08/18 January 8, 2018 20 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

WHAT YOU DON’T SEE AT MARKET BOTTOMS: RETAIL STAMPEDE EDITION

It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions converge, but not necessarily all at the same time. We have stated that while we don’t believe the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late stages of a bull market (see Five Steps, Where`s the Stumble?). Nevertheless, psychology is becoming a little fro...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 9 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

MODELING TRUMP’S TRADE WAR

As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an equity market blow-off, followed by a Fed-induced slowdown (see our publication, Five Steps, Where’s the Stumble?). In the midst of the celebration, American trade policy is starting to appear as a risk to the equity bull. However, 2018 may bring “full Trump”, with a dramatic change in policy tone after the legislative tax cut victory. Both the n...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 11 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

CAN WE GET THIS PAST COMPLIANCE?

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral, celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular traditions at all…and a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 2 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

WHAT YOU DON’T SEE AT MARKET BOTTOMS: RETAIL STAMPEDE EDITION

It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions converge, but not necessarily all at the same time. We have stated that while we don’t believe the stock market has made its final cyclical top, we are in the late stages of a bull market (see Five Steps, Where`s the Stumble?). Nevertheless, psychology is becoming a little fro...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 9 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

MODELING TRUMP’S TRADE WAR

As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an equity market blow-off, followed by a Fed-induced slowdown (see our publication, Five Steps, Where’s the Stumble?). In the midst of the celebration, American trade policy is starting to appear as a risk to the equity bull. However, 2018 may bring “full Trump”, with a dramatic change in policy tone after the legislative tax cut victory. Both the n...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 11 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

CAN WE GET THIS PAST COMPLIANCE?

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral, celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular traditions at all…and a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 2 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

FIVE STEPS, WHERE’S THE STUMBLE?

The old Wall Street trader’s adage of “three steps and a stumble” refers to the stock market’s reaction to Fed rate hike cycles. At first, stock prices don’t react to the Fed raising rates, but eventually the market succumbs to the economic cooling effects of monetary policy, and a bear market usually begins after three rate hikes. Hence, “three and a stumble”. The chart below from Ned Davis Research shows the effects of this rule on the Dow. Historically, the DJIA has declined a m...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 14 EN
Cam Hui
  • Cam Hui
EUR 261.08

HOW WORRIED SHOULD YOU BE ABOUT AN ELEVATED SHILLER P/E?

In our discussion with investors, the Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE), or Shiller P/E, has come up numerous times as a risk for the U.S. stock market. The current reading of 32x is only exceeded by the peak during the NASDAQ Bubble, and it is higher than the levels seen before the Crash of 1929. Does this mean that the risk of a substantial stock market drawdown in the near future is rising? We studied the question in the context of some of the criticisms of the Shiller P/E. We made a number of ...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 9 EN
Barbara Gray
  • Barbara Gray
EUR 261.08
BABA US ALIBABA

The Shopping Race

As we look to 2018, I am becoming more and more convinced that the secret for companies to survive the retail apocalypse will be for them to advance beyond the four traditional economic moat factors (i.e., low-cost producer, intangible assets, switching costs, network effect) to the experience moat. For as Amazon continues to innovate and push the edges of the consumer value frontier in terms of pricing, convenience, and variety of choice, companies are discovering they can no longer compete on ...

12/01/17 December 1, 2017 4 EN
Barbara Gray
  • Barbara Gray
EUR 261.08
AMZN Amazon.com Inc...

THE UNITED REINDEER SERVICE

Brady and Adam had just finished hanging their "stockings by the chimney with care in hopes that Saint Nicholas soon would be there" when my iPhone buzzed and I saw an email from the North Pole advising me that there may be a delivery delay as the elves had loaded their gifts onto the wrong sleigh. So, instead of settling down for "a long winter's nap", I tossed and turned all night. I woke up early Christmas morning and was dismayed to discover Santa hadn't touched the milk and cookies and, eve...

AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
01/08/18 January 8, 2018 5 EN
Barbara Gray
  • Barbara Gray
EUR 522.14
TGT Target Corporat...

Experience Is the New Moat

Although Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods blows open the dam protecting the supplier and structural channels, most of the value erosion has taken place along the customer channel, as evidenced by the year-to-date performance of the 289 companies lying in the 21 sub-industries along each of the three channels: ï‚· Overall: -2.6% versus +18.3% for S&P 500 (negative delta of 2,090 basis points) ï‚· By Channel: Customer (-13.2%), Supplier (+2.6%), Structural (+7.4%) To protect themselves from the...

TGT TARGET CORPORATION
01/08/18 January 8, 2018 20 EN
Norm Kumar
  • Norm Kumar
EUR 261.08

KPMG predicts a decline in sedan sales, Tesla announces a truck, Googl...

KPMG forecasts significant changes to the auto market by 2030 as a result of autonomous vehicles – KPMG recently came out with a forecast that predicts the sales of sedans will drop precipitously by 2030 as a result of the emergence of autonomous vehicles. They estimate that sales of sedans in the US will drop from 5.4M annually to 2.1M as a result of the emergence of autonomous vehicles. They view the emergence of driverless vehicles with on demand mobility services such as robo-taxis. Furthe...

01/08/18 January 8, 2018 2 EN

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