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Beware the Expiry of the 19th Party Congress Put Option
Commodity prices have been on a tear lately, driven by Chinese demand. On the other hand, China is currently holding its 19th Party Congress. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that any bureaucrat who creates conditions that cause either a growth slowdown or financial instability during this critical period will have made his own life very difficult. In effect, Beijing has given a 19th Party Congress put option to the market, where nothing bad would be permitted to happen to the economy ahead of the meeting.
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