The Challenges of a late Bull Cycle
In the past, every recession has been accompanied by a bear market, though not every bear market has seen a recession. The question is: “How far away is a recession?â€We answer that question by focusing on the following three components of the economy using leading indicators:
- The household sector;
- The corporate sector; and
- Monetary conditions.
We find that the economy is the late stages of an expansion and the stock market is showing the typical characteristics of a late cycle bull. Much depends on Federal Reserve policy, which we believe will turn out to be more hawkish than market expectations.
We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side.
We offer the best research for institutional investors by:
- Only publishing research from veteran analysts
- Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
- Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success
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