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The Morning Call: Friday the 13th. Scary, Hairy or Just Fun?

We have read that there's no correlation. In Fact, There's the opposite. It's likely to go up again today. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number is a Blowout. It was expected to be 95.3. It's 101.1. That's the highest number since November of Y2K. As one of Canada's best PM's just said. Trump wins again. Except he's not data dependent.

CpI missed at +0.5% versus the +0.6% forecast. The Dispersion was from +0.2% to +0.7%. Ex Food and Energy it was up +0.1% versus the expected +0.2%. It begins to beg the Question for the FED. Data Dependent or Market Dependent? Yields Fall. The 10-year treasury is at +2.28%. The USD is down. Then surprisingly, Retail Sales are up +1.5% in September. The BLS reported at the same time that the Real Average hourly earnings went down by -0,1% SAAR in September. Average Hourly was up +0.5% while the CPI-U was down -0.5%. So, on the Month real average weekly earnings were down -0.1%.

Some months ago ,Cam Hui wrote about the importance of the Communist Party Congress. He asserted that they would keep everything on an even keel until it was successfully completed. It commences on October 18th. The Leadership will not change. They will embrace the Chinese version of Apple pie and Ice Cream. That's the Plan. Be alert to any Changes. They should re-elect Xi and all his Cronies.

Fischer's term is coming to an end at the FED. He supervised the PhD thesis for both Draghi and Yellen. He was the chairman of the Bank of Isreal. That would have required some Skill. The Market seems to Sail On. The Technicals are full of Stocks and Indices breaking out of Patterns.The Market always knows.

Invest the Money.

Today in 1989 the LBO for United Airlines Fell Apart. The DOW went down -6.9% to close down 190 points. Junk Bonds were Done.

Regards,

Edward Pennock CFA, Founding Partner
647-287-6800 | [email protected]