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Ian Brink
- Ian Brink
Blue Label Telecoms (BLU) – Building an ecosystem
Summary We initiate coverage on Blue Label Telecoms with a BUY recommendation The SA Distribution segment remains the core of the business. We believe that regulatory developments in India and a resurgence in cash usage have negatively impacted on the growth potential of the Oxigen business. Despite the significant potential of Mexico’s airtime market, stubbornly high market concentration threatens to persist and smother growth. The Mexican business is subscale, in our view. On its own, the g...
Anton Solomons
- Anton Solomons
Novus Holdings - Overvalued
We view Novus Holdings as overvalued at current levels. The print industry appears to be in a consolidation phase and for Novus, the impact on volumes, prices and operations has already contributed to margin pressure and some mothballing. We expect these trends to continue over the forecast period. We see the use of the internet to consume media as a threat to print media consumption.
Jasmine Lin
- Jasmine Lin
Steinhoff (SNH) ; Price Discovery - How we value Steinhoff
Summary In the wake of the developments at Steinhoff (SNH), shareholders have found it difficult to assess the fair value of SNH. The FY17 financials are still outstanding, and prior year financials are also under review. Without reliable financial information and increasing risk of litigation, investors have found it challenging to assign a value to the share with some degree of comfort. The consequence of this breakdown in the market price discovery mechanism is share price movements that are...
Jasmine Lin
- Jasmine Lin
Steinhoff (SNH) ; Price Discovery - How we value Steinhoff
Summary In the wake of the developments at Steinhoff (SNH), shareholders have found it difficult to assess the fair value of SNH. The FY17 financials are still outstanding, and prior year financials are also under review. Without reliable financial information and increasing risk of litigation, investors have found it challenging to assign a value to the share with some degree of comfort. The consequence of this breakdown in the market price discovery mechanism is share price movements that are...
Ian Brink
- Ian Brink
Telkom (TKG) - Disrupt and Conquer
Telkom produced a poor set of results in 1H18 with HEPS declining by 7.4% y-y to ZAR3.04. This however beat our and market expectations by 12.6% and 11.4%, respectively. Poor top-line growth of -0.6% y-y resulted from the impact of weaker business sentiment on private and public sector spend. We are concerned that some of the longer-term economics of the business are not stacking up – high reliance on voice and declining fixed access lines, less than parity substitution of ADSL with fibre and ...
Thambo Mthwalo
- Thambo Mthwalo
Consumer watch - October 2017
Summary Recent economic indicators point to a largely positive period of consumption in the months leading to October. Encouraging retail sales growth was reported for August at 5.5% y/y, while food and beverages sales growth outpaced CPI in the same month. In September, the SA Consumer and Producer Price Index increased by 30bps and 100bps to 5.1% and 5.2% respectively. Business confidence recovered somewhat from the August decline, coming in at 93.0 points. Manufacturing remains weak; the AB...
Thambo Mthwalo
- Thambo Mthwalo
Consumer watch - September 2017
September was relatively positive for the South African consumer. The SA Consumer and Producer Price Index came off YTD lows in July increasing 20bps and 60bps to 4.8% and 4.2% respectively. In August, the ABSA Purchasing Managers’ Index improved by 1.1 points following a 3.8-point decline in July. Business confidence sank to its lowest level since the mid-1980s at 89.6 points. The rand lost significant ground, closing the month at ZAR13.54/USD on the back of hawkish comments by the US Federal R...