Report
John Zolidis
EUR 87.04 For Business Accounts Only

National Retail Federation Investment Takeaways

In this report we discuss our key takeaways from several recent industry trade shows that we've attended, most recently the National Retail Federation (NRF) conference in New York.  We compile insights from these meetings and company presentations to reoriented our understanding of the U.S. consumer and the dynamics at work in the market for retailers.  We discuss the reasons for different outcomes in 2016 vs. 2017 Holiday seasons.  We also discuss macroeconomic factors and our outlook for retail stocks at the start of 2018.  Lastly, we give as summary of our top picks and compare valuation and fundamental metrics for the group. 

Underlyings
Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com serves consumers through its online and physical stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, and Ring, and the company develops and produces media content. The company operates customer service centers and provides programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products in its stores, and fulfill orders through the company The company serves developers and enterprises of various sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through its Amazon Web Services segment, which provides a set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings. The company also provides services, such as advertising.

Dollar Tree Inc.

Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.

Five Below Inc.

Five Below is a retailer providing a range of merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographic. The company provides an assortment of products, all priced at $5 and below, including select brands and licensed merchandise across eight worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Create, Party, Candy and Now. The company operates in states that include Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Maine, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Minnesota, California and Arkansas.

Target Corporation

Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

Provider
Quo Vadis Capital
Quo Vadis Capital

Quo Vadis Capital, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, independent equity research boutique and financial and strategic consultancy.  Our focus is on the U.S. consumer market with a specialization in the retail and restaurant sectors.  Quo Vadis provides an investment edge for professional investors using a proprietary forecasting tool that identifies and quantifies near- and long-term upside or downside potential to consensus estimates.  Quo Vadis is based in Paris, France. 

Analysts
John Zolidis

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