Report

CEE Equity Navigator January 2020

We expect the positive growth delta of the CEE region vs. the Euro Area to persist in FY 20-21e. We forecast continued robust growth in the region ranging between 2.0-3.5% yoy in FY 20e and FY 21e stimulated by private and public consumption, supported by expansionary fiscal and/or monetary policies in CEE economies.

We expect Poland to outperform CEE peers in terms of GDP growth in 2020e (3.3%, down from 4.3% in 2019e). While some of the problematic topics which dominated in 2019 remain on the table, we expect the Polish equity market to be relatively supported by earnings growth (+12.5% yoy in our coverage universe), attractive valuations (12% discount to the LT average) and potential inflows (>PLN 2.5 bn) from the third-pillar pension scheme.

While Romanian GDP growth should slow in 2020e (from 3.8% to 3.0%), domestic demand remains robust. Romanian valuations are still attractive, even after the 2019 rally, but political and fiscal risks remain significant.

In Hungary the sharp GDP slowdown expected in 2020e (from 4.9% to 3.2%), driven by a less intensive stimulus coming from economic policy makers and a weak external environment, coupled with a solid equity market performance in 4Q 19, make us neutral on the three heavyweights (OTP, MOL, Richter).

In the Czech Republic we expect the discussion about the bank tax to resurface ahead of the general elections in 2021. Thus we prefer to stay on the sidelines regarding Erste and Komercni Banka.

Politics should remain in focus in 2020 with the presidential election in Poland awaited in May, while local and general elections loom in Romania. We note the Polish governments dispute with the EU with regard to the rule of law in a decisive year for the 2021-27 EU budget.

Our top picks in CEE include Agora, Bank Handlowy, CEZ, Dino, Lotos, MedLife and NLB.
Underlyings
Addiko Bank

Agora S.A.

Agora principally produces and sells newspapers and carries out the Internet activity. Co. is also engaged in the cinema segment through its subsidiaries, Helios S.A. and Next Film Sp. z o.o., and in the outdoor segment through its subsidiary, AMS S.A. Co. controls radio broadcasting companies and is a publisher in magazines, periodicals and books segment. Moreover, Co. and its subsidiaries provide printing services for external clients in printing houses belonging to Co. and its subsidiary, Agora Poligrafia Sp.z o.o. Co. is also engaged in TV segment by holding shares in Stopklatka S.A. Co. and its subsidiaries also engage in projects related to production and coproduction of movies.

Alior Bank SA

Alior Bank is a universal lending and deposit-taking bank which renders services to individuals, legal persons and other entities which are Polish and foreign persons. Co.'s core activities include maintaining bank accounts, granting loans and advances, issuing banking securities and purchasing and selling foreign currency. Co. also conducts brokerage activities, consulting and financial agency services and renders other financial services.

AMREST HOLDING

AmRest is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is an international fas-foods and casual dining restaurant operator in Central and Eastern Europe. Co. has been building a portfolio of well recognized power brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Applebee's and Starbucks based on solid franchise and joint venture partnerships. Co. owns La Tagliatella brand which is being developed as Co. operated restaurants as well as franchised stores. Co. operates almost 700 category Quick Service and Casual Dining restaurants. Co. is based in Wroclaw and operates in Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Spain, France and the United States.

Asseco Poland SA

Asseco Poland is a provider of proprietary information technology ("IT") solutions which is based in Poland. Co. is engaged in provision of consulting on IT infrastructure, security solutions, human resources solutions, outsourcing services as well as fully comprehensive IT support. Co.'s profile includes software and computer hardware consultancy, production of software as well as supply of software and hardware. This category includes analysing, developing, and programming ready-to-use IT systems. In addition to IT services, Co. also sells goods including mainly computer hardware.

Atal SA

Atal SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the residential real estate development industry. The Company specializes in the construction and sale of apartments in multi-family buildings. It also builds single-family houses. The Company operates wholly owned subsidiaries such as ATAL Construction Sp z o o and Atal Wysoka Sp z o o , among others. Atal SA operates domestically.

Banca Transilvania S.A.

Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A.

Bank Handlowy W Warszawie is a Polish bank holding company engaged in a wide range of banking services for individuals and corporate customers in the domestic and foreign markets. Additionally Co. operates in brokerage operations, lease services and investment operations. Customers have access to these services at the branches, ATM's, telephone services and electronic banking services.

Bank Millennium SA

Bank Millennium provides various banking products and services to individual clients, small businesses, corporate, and public sector entities in Poland. Co. offers current account, custody account, and escrow account; standard deposits, negotiated deposits, millenet deposits, and automatic overnight deposits; debit and charge cards; funds management; professional cash services; and management of balances of current and auxiliary accounts. Co. also provides current account overdraft facility, real estate loans, revolving credits, working capital loans, investment loans, energy financing facility, sureties, line of guarantees, letters-of-credit, preferential loans, and bid bond guarantees.

BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA

Bank Polska Kasa Opieki (the Bank) is a commercial bank providing a range of banking services, mainly in Poland. The segments of the Bank are as follows: Retail banking, which comprises all banking activities related to retail customers and small and micro companies; Private banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the affluent individual customers; Corporate and Investment banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the companies, interbank market, debt securities and other instruments; and Assets and Liabilities Management and other, which is engaged in the supervision and monitoring of fund transfers, and other activities centrally managed.

Bluerock Diamonds

BlueRock Diamonds is engaged in diamond mining in the Kimberley region of South Africa.

BRD-Groupe Societe Generale

CCC SA

CCC is engaged in the wholesale and retail trade of clothing and footwear. Co. offers its products to wide range of consumers, from demanding clientele of trendy boutiques to value-oriented medium segment customers, to less wealthy customers seeking reasonably priced quality footwear. Co. pursues a strategy of brand diversification, which is reflected in its three autonomous distribution channels: a chain of official CCC stores, BOTI footwear shops and QUAZI boutiques. Co. offers more than 2,500 designs of footwear. Co. also owns more than 67 proprietary brand names e.g. Lasocki.

CEZ as

CEZ Group is a dynamic, integrated electricity conglomerate based in the Czech Republic and with operations in a number of countries of Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey. Co. is an international group consisting of nearly 120 companies, Czech and foreign. Co.'s primary activities involve the production and transmission of electricity through nuclear, coal-fired and hydro power stations; production and distribution of heat and processing of secondary products generated during the production of electricity and heat as well as coal mining. Co. has operating companies in Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, Hungary, Albania, Turkey, Serbia, and Slovakia.

Chemical Works of Gedeon Richter Plc

Chemical Works of Richter Gedeon is a multinational pharmaceutical company that is engaged in the research, development, production and marketing and trade of pharmaceutical products. Co.'s activities are divided into two major business segments: Pharmaceutical, including research, development and manufacturing of pharmaceutical products; and Wholesale and Retail including wholesale and retail trade through the distribution chain as well as marketing of its products. Co. is primarily engaged in production of gynecological, cardiovascular and gastroenterological products, antibiotics, antimicotics, OTC and medicines for treatment of the central nervous system.

Ciech S.A.

Ciech is engaged in the production, trade and distribution of chemicals as well as comprehensive service activities directed at the domestic and foreign market. The main products sold by Co. are soda ash, TDI, plastics, resins, chemical fertilizers, plant protection chemicals, glass blocks and glass packaging, salt and other chemicals.

Cyfrowy Polsat SA

Digi Communications NV

Dino Polska S.A.

Dino Polska is engaged in the business of retail sale in non-specialized stores with food, beverages and tobacco. In addition, Co. conducts processing of meats and the resulting products are dedicated, in the form of culinary meat, to external recipients within Co.'s retail chain. As of December 31, 2016, Co. operated a network of 628 Dino stores.

Enea S.A.

ENEA is engaged in production of electricity and heat; trade in electricity; and distribution of electricity.

Energa SA

Energa SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the electric power sector. It produces and distributes the electric power and participates in the electric power market in Northern and Central Poland. It divides its business into seven segments: Electricity Distribution consists of electricity distribution conducted by subsidiaries; Renewable Energy invests in renewable energy sources and produces electricity through hydro, wind and bio-energy plans; Baseload Power Plant consists of manufacturing and investment activities in the area of conventional power plants, service and repair activities related to the generation of electricity; Combined Heat and Power (CHP) includes manufacturing activity of power plants and the heat distribution; Sales is engaged in lighting services, trading of electrical energy and customer service; Services provides accounting, human resources (HR) and payroll services, among others; Other includes hotel and training centers, and transportation services.

Erste Group Bank AG

Erste Group is a financial services provider based in Austria. As of Dec 31 2015, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro199,743 million and the number of customers was approximately 16.5 million. Co.'s key business is the retail business, covering the entire spectrum from lending, deposit and investment products to current accounts and credit cards. In addition to providing financial services to private individuals, Co.'s core activities also include advisory services and support for corporate clients in financing, investment and access to international capital markets, public sector funding and interbank market operations.

Eurocash S.A.

Eurocash, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the distribution of food products, household chemicals, alcohol, and tobacco products (fast moving consumer goods). Through a range of distribution formats, Co. and its subsidiaries focus its business activities on the wholesale distribution to customers across the wholesale market segments, in particular, to stores throughout Poland such as retail stores, convenience stores at petrol stations, restaurants, hotels and cafeterias. Co. and its subsidiaries operate a range of distribution formats focused on supplying independent stores in Poland, which primarily include: Cash and Carry, Franchise Systems, and Distribution.

Grupa Azoty Spolka Akcyjna

Grupa Azoty is engaged in the processing of nitrogen products, the production and sales of fertilizers, the production and sales of plastics, the production and sales of oxo alcohols, the production and sales of titanium dioxide, the production and sales of melamine, the extracting and sulphur products processing, and the extracting of phosphate rock. Co. and its subsidiaries have five operating segments: Fertilizers-Agro; Plastics; Chemical; Energy, includes activities that concern production of electricity and heat; and Other Activities, which comprises other operations, such as laboratory services, rental of properties and other activities that cannot be allocated to other segments.

Grupa Kety SA

Grupa Kety is an aluminum industry company based in Poland. Co.'s operations are organized in three business segments: Aluminum Extrusions, Aluminum Architectural Systems and Flexible Packaging. Co. offers aluminum extrusions in different shapes, bars, tubes and wires of aluminum and its alloys, which are used in the construction & building, advertising, indoor fittings, transportation, automotive industry, white goods, machinery engineering and electrical engineering. Co.'s Aluminum Architectural Systems produces aluminum joinery, realizing investment projects and selling systems. Co.'s flexible packaging segment offers packaging made of aluminum foil, films and paper.

Grupa LOTOS S.A.

Grupa Lotos is an oil concern which deals with oil extraction and processing and trading of high quality oil products. Co. supplies the market with, unleaded petrol, diesel oil, fuel oil, aviation fuel, industrial oil, asphalt and paraffin, among other things. Co. is engaged in the production and sales of engine oils and bitumen in Poland. Co. maintains oil exploration and production activities in the Baltic, North Sea and Norwegian Sea and operates three refineries in Gdansk, Jaslo and Czechowice, Poland. Co. markets its products in wholesale markets, as well as in retail markets through a network of petrol stations.

Komercni banka a.s.

Komercni banka is a universal banking group based in the Czech Republic. Co. is engaged in the provision of a range of financial services in retail, corporate and investment banking. Co.'s operating segments include: Retail Banking, the provision of products and services to individuals, such as among others building savings, pension insurance, overdrafts, credit card and personal loans and mortgages; Corporate Banking, the provision of products and services to corporate entities such as foreign currency and derivative products, syndicated and export financing, and guarantee transactions; and Investment Banking, which involves trading in financial instruments.

LPP S.A.

LPP SA Gdansk is clothing manufacturing group based in Poland. Co. is engaged in the design and distribution of clothing. Co.'s headquarters is located in Gdan'sk, including designing resources for all its brands. Co.'s stores offer its customer products that include jackets, shirts, sweaters, dresses, skirts, trousers, jeans, underwear and garment products. Co. also sells promotion clothing under a special selected brand. Co.'s product offering is addressed to a variety of customers for whom separate brands and chain stores are set up. Co. launches clothing under such brand names as: RESERVED, CROPP, MOHITO, HOUSE, and PROMOSTARS.

Magyar Telekom Telecommunications

Magyar Telekom is engaged in the providing fixed line and mobile telecommunication services for public and business customers. Co. provides voice and non-voice (SMS, MMS, internet, data and content provision) within mobile services; voice, data, internet and TV services within fixed line services. In addition, Co. sells equipment needed for using fixed line and mobile services (telephones, tablets, notebooks, TV sets etc.).

MBANK SA

mBank is a provider of comprehensive corporate banking services in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries make up the mBank Group which is engaged in offering financial services. Co.'s service offering includes a comprehensive financial offer tailored to the needs of corporate clients, Private Banking clients, and retail clients. The business activities of Co. is conducted in the following business segments: Retail Banking and Corporates and Markets.

Med Life

MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A

Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.

Netia Holdings S.A.

Netia Holdings is a fixed-line telecommunication operator based in Poland. Co. provides voice telephony and data transmission services. These services include switched, fixed-line voice telephone services (long-distance and fixed-to-mobile services), Integrated Services Digital Network, Voice over Internet Protocol, voice mail, dial-up and fixed-access Internet, leased lines and frame relay and MPLS services. Co. also offers wholesale services (including wholesale termination of inbound traffic, ducts, dark fiber and co-location), services based upon intelligent networks (free phone, split charge and premium rate services) and provides broadband Internet access with ADSL technology.

Nova Ljubljanska Banka DD Ljubljana

NLB dd is a Slovenia-based company, which is primarily involved in the financial services industry. The Company operates as a parent company of NLB Group and has a number of subsidiaries, such as NLB Banka Banja Luka, NLB Banka Sarajevo, NLB Banka Prishtina, NLB Nov penziski fond Skopje, NLB Tutunska Banka Skopje, NLB Bank Podgorica, Bankart, Nova ljubljanska banka, NLB Skladi, NLB Vita, NLB Banka Belgrade, NLB Srbija Beograd, NLB Leasing Sarajevo, Prvi Paktor Sarajevo, NLB Leasing Sofia, Optima Leasing Zagred, among others. The Company operates in such countries, as Slovenia, Bosnia and herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, among others.

Orange Polska S.A.

Orange Polska SA is a supplier of telecommunications services in Poland. Co. provides services, including fixed-line telecommunication services, Integrated Services Digital Network, voice mail, dial-up and fixed access to the Internet and Voice over Internet Protocol. Co. is one of Poland's three DCS 1800 and GSM 900 mobile telecommunications providers. Co. provides also third generation UMTS services. In addition, Co. provides leased lines, radio-communications and other telecommunications value added services, sells telecommunications equipment, produces electronic phone cards and provides data transmission, telephone directories, multimedia services and various Internet services.

OTP Bank Nyrt

OTP Bank is a financial institution based in Hungary. Co. is engaged in retail banking (account management, bankcards and Electronic sevices - OTPdirekt) corporate banking and private banking. In Hungary traditional banking operations are performed by Co. while specialized services, including car leasing, investment funds and insurance are developed and offered by Co.'s subsidiaries. Co. expands its operations throughout the region via its foreign subsidiaries. As of Dec 31 2011, Co. had total assets of HUF10,200,527,000,000 and deposits of HUF6,398,853,000,000.

Petrom S.A.

PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A.

PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna is an electricity company based in Poland. Co. is engaged in the generation and selling of electricity. Co. is a predominant power producer and supplier in Poland and a major heat and power sector company in Central and Eastern Europe. Co. supplies over 5 million households, businesses and institutions through a combination of its own fuel resources (lignite), power generation and final distribution networks. Co.'s activities focus on the following areas: Conventional Power Generation, Renewable Power Generation, Nuclear Power Generation, Wholesale, Distribution and Retail. Co. has 12.2 GW of installed generation capacity.

PKO Bank Polski S.A.

PKO Bank Polski is a universal commercial bank offering services to both domestic and foreign retail, corporate and other clients. Co. is licensed to hold foreign exchange and currencies and sell/buy them, as well as perform a full range of foreign exchange services; open and hold bank accounts abroad and to deposit foreign exchange in these accounts. In addition, Co. conducts activities relating to leasing, factoring, electronic settlements via payment cards, as well as renders other financial services. As of Dec 31 2009, Co. had total assets of Zl156,478,685,000 and total deposit of Zl124,628,562,000. Co. operates in the Republic of Poland, Ukraine and Sweden.

PKP Cargo

PKP Cargo SA is a Poland-based company active in the transportation sector. The Company's main activity is domestic and international transport of goods by rail and provision of logistic services in the field of railway cargo transport services. The Company divides its services into six divisions: Transport, offering rail transport carried out by PKP Cargo, road transport and ferry transport; Intermodal, providing intermodal rail transport; Forwarding, services carried out by Trade Trans, Cargosped and PKP Cargo International; Terminals, offering service of reloading terminals; Sidings, providing railway sidings; and Rolling Stock, which provides repairs of the rolling stock. It operates through Advanced World Transport BV (AWT).

Play Communications SA

Play Communications SA Formerly known as Play Holdings 2 SARL. Play Communications SA, formerly Play Holdings 2 SARL, is a Luxembourg-based provider of financial investment services. The Company is the owner of mobile operator P4 Sp z o o, that provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services, including voice, data transmission services, messaging, video service (PLAY NOW), as well as Value Added Services and sales of handsets and other devices, to individual and business subscribers in Poland.

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN S.A.

Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen's activities are divided into three main business segments: the Refining Segment that comprises crude oil processing as well as wholesale and retail trade in refinery products. The Petrochemical Segment that encompasses production and sale of petrochemicals and chemicals. The Retail Segment that comprises of sales at petrol stations. Co.'s basic products include gasolines, diesel oils, light heating oil, Jet fuel, liquid gas, polyetylene, polypropylene, benzene, butadiene, acetone, phenol, glycols, toluen, ortoxylene.

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe I Gazownictwo SA Polish Oil & Gas Co (PGNiG) is an integrated natural gas company based in Poland. Co.'s core activity covers exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil as well as import, storage, trade and distribution of gas and liquid fuels. Co.'s scope of activity includes gas trading and commercial support, as well as operation, maintenance and expansion of its distribution system. Co.'s distribution networks comprises over 100 thousand kilometers of gas pipelines (high, upper-medium, medium and low pressure), which cover primarily industrialized and urbanized areas of the country.

Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen Spolka Akcyjna

Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen is an insurance group based in Poland. Co. is engaged in offering a broad range of insurance and financial products. Co. pursues three main lines of business: Property and Casualty Insurance, offered by PZU; Life Insurance, offered by PZU Zycie; and Open-end Pension Funds, offered by PTE PZU, the manager of OFE PZU Zlota Jesien. Co. maintains a network of sales and service outlets including 500 outlets throughout Poland, including 243 shared outlets (common for PZU and PZU Zycie), 137 outlets of PZU Zycie and 120 outlets of PZU. Co.'s business is focused on the Polish market but it also conducts insurance business in the Lithuanian and Ukrainian markets.

S.C. Fondul Proprietatea S.A.

Santander Bank Polska SA

Bank Zachodni is a bank seated in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries provide a range of banking services for individual and business customers and operate in domestic and interbank foreign markets. Additionally, Co. provides also the following services, including intermediation in trading securities, leasing, factoring, asset/ fund management, insurance services, trading in stock and shares of commercial companies, and brokerage activity. Operational activity of Co. and its subsidiaries has been divided into five segments: Retail Banking, Business and Corporate Banking, Global Banking and Markets, ALM (Assets and Liabilities Management) and Centre, as well as Santander Consumer.

Sphera Franchise Group SA

TAURON Polska Energia S.A.

Tauron Polska Energia is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat in Poland. Co. generates electricity from various conventional and renewable energy sources, including hard coal, lignite, natural gas, biomass, wind, solar, and hydro power. It is also involved in quarrying, crushing, and breaking of limestone; quarrying of stone for the construction industry; mining of hard coal; trading in electricity; and production of technical gases. In addition, Co. engages in the repair and maintenance of machinery and electrical equipment; electrical installations; and construction of power lines.

Wizz Air Holdings Plc

Wizz Air Holding is a European airline. As of Mar 31 2017, Co. provided more than 500 routes from 28 bases, connecting 141 destinations across 42 countries. Co. has two reportable segments: the airline and the tour operator business units, marketed under the Wizz Air and Wizz Tours brand names, respectively. Wizz Air sells flight tickets and related services to external customers and, to an extent, to Wizz Tours. Wizz Tours sells travel packages to external customers covering the network of Wizz Air.

Provider
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity

The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.

The Institutional Equity Research team consists of roughly 15 analysts, both in Vienna and the CEE countries. Our analysts provide long-standing sector expertise in tandem with profound local market know how and a sectoral approach across the entire region.

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