Report

Russian Equity Navigator January 2020

The Russian economy enters 2020e at a slower pace (GDP growth at 1.2% yoy in 2019, our estimate) but more prepared to withstand external shocks. Tight fiscal policy, which inhibits growth on the one hand, is creating a safety cushion in return. The countrys international reserves have reached USD 557 bn, levels last seen in 2008. The new government is expected to secure the implementation of national projects, which along with NWF usage, should energise growth (to 1.6% yoy in 2020e). The overall political and economic picture is unlikely to change dramatically, although we still see room for tactical improvements. The weakness of the domestic economy allowed for sharp disinflation with CPI touching 3% at YE 2019, and is expected to be below 4% for the majority of 2020e. Nevertheless, the Feds hawkish stance cools the CBRs desire for active easing. We forecast only one key RUB rate cut this year (to 6%). A weaker expected current account surplus (lower exports amid global economic slowdown and low sensitivity of imports) suggests moderate RUB depreciation in 2020e.
Underlyings
CPI Card Group

CPI Card Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of Financial Payment Card solutions. The company defines Financial Payment Cards as credit, debit and Prepaid Debit Cards issued on the networks of the Payment Card Brands and Interac. The company defines Prepaid Debit Cards as debit cards issued on the networks of the Payment Card Brands. The company's business consists of the following reportable segments: U.S. Debit and Credit, which primarily produces Financial Payment Cards and provides integrated card services to card-issuing banks in the U.S.; and U.S. Prepaid Debit, which primarily provides integrated card services to Prepaid Debit Card issuers in the U.S.

Detsky Mir

Detskiy Mir PAO is a Russia-based company, which is primarily engaged in the children products retail sector. The Company offers a wide range of products, such as toys, clothing and footwear, baby goods, stationery, school and learning related products, creative kits, sport related products, food, car seats, furniture, among others. The Company's structure includes the chain of stores Detskiy Mir and the retail network ELC (Early Learning Center). The Company's Detskiy Mir chain comprises over 480 stores located on the territory of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, as well as more than 40 ECL stores. Detskiy Mir PAO is primarily active domestically and in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. In addition, the Company sells products online via its Website. The Company's major shareholder is AFK Sistema PAO.

Enel Russia

PJSC Enel Russia is a wholesale generation company in Russia. Co.'s main areas of operation are production of power and heat, supply (sale) of power and heat, receipt (purchase) of power and heat from the wholesale power (capacity) market. Co. is active in four production branches around Russia: in the Ural region - Reftinskaya GRES, Sredneuralskaya GRES, in the northern Caucasus - Nevinnomysskaya GRES, and in Central Russia - Konakovskaya GRES. Co.'s aggregate installed capacity is 9,677 MW for power and 2,382 GCal/h for heat. Co. provides power and heat to both industrial enterprises and household consumers via local power distribution networks.

Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro PJSC

PJSC RusHydro is a hydro-generating company based in Russia. Co. is engaged in the generation and sale of electricity and capacity on the Russian wholesale and retail markets, as well as generation and sale of heat energy. The main activity of Co. is production of power from renewable energy sources, developing power generation using water flows, tidal, wind and geothermal energy. It has an installed electricity generation capacity of 38.5 GW; and heat capacity of 16.2 GCal/h.

Gazprom Neft (GDR)

Gazprom Neft PJSC

Gazprom Neft PJSC is vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, CIS and internationally. Co.'s principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and market ing operations through its retail outlets. Co.'s Upstream segment includes the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), oil field services. Co.'s Downstream segment processes crude into refined products and purchases and sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products (refining and marketing).

Gazprom PJSC

PJSC Gazprom is a gas company based in Russia. Co.'s principal activity is the sale of gas. Co. is also involved in other types of activities which include leasing of assets, gas transportation and storage services, sale of gas condensate and refined products. Co. and its subsidiaries and associates operates gas pipelines systems in Russia. Co. is responsible for substantially all gas production and high pressure gas transportation in the Russian Federation. Co. is also a major exporter of gas to European countries. Co. is directly involved in exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons, production of gas and other hydrocarbons and domestic and export sale of gas and other hydrocarbons.

Inter RAO UES PJSC

Inter RAO UES PJSC is a functioning operator of electricity exports and imports in the territory of Russia. Co. represents the interests of two Russian power sector participants: RAO UES of Russia and Rosenergoatom concern, which possess 60 and 40% of the shares respectively. Co. is engaged in arranging transboundary electricity supplies, to provide both domestic and foreign consumers with electric power. Co. is also engaged in pursuing effective investment activities. Co. is developing several areas of activity, including: electric power export and import supplies; electricity sales in home and foreign markets; investment activities; and foreign asset management.

Lenta International PJSC

Lenta is a hypermarket group based in Russia. Co. operates 87 hypermarkets in 50 cities across Russia and 16 supermarkets in the Moscow region with a total of approximately 571,328 sq.m. of selling space. Co. also operates four distribution centers for hypermarkets and one for supermarkets. operates three hypermarket formats: Standard, typically with approximately 7,000 sq. m. of selling space (smaller than many Western European hypermarkets) and 24,000 stock keeping unit (SKUs); Compact, typically with approximately 5,000 sq. m. of selling space and 20,300 SKUs; and Supercompact, typically with approximately 3,000 sq. m. of selling space and 15,000 SKUs.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of analog semiconductor solutions that enable internet applications, the cloud connected apps economy and the networked battlefield across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeterwave and lightwave spectrum. The company's primary markets are: Telecom, which includes carrier infrastructure like long-haul/metro, 5G and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; Data Centers, enabled by a portfolio of analog ICs and photonic components for high speed optical module consumers; and Industrial and Defense, which includes military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic and countermeasures.

Magnit PJSC Sponsored GDR RegS

Mail.ru Group Ltd. Sponsored GDR

Mail.Ru Group is an Internet company based in the Russian Federation. Co. operates the email service [email protected] and two IM networks in Russia - Mail.Ru Agent and ICQ. Co. operates two Russian-language online social networking sites: Moi [email protected] and Odnoklassniki.ru, and owns a strategic minority equity stake in the social network Vkontakte. Co. is also engaged in developing projects in E-commerce and operating more than 40 thematic vertical sites, targeting various user categories. Co. is also Russia's predominant online games company. Co. maintains a portfolio of online games which includes 34 MMO games and over 30 games for social networking sites.

Mobile TeleSystems PJSC

Mobile Telesystems is a provider of mobile cellular communications services in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to consumers and corporate customers, employing technology based primarily on Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM). Co. had a mobile subscriber base of around 102.5 million (77.3 million in Russia, 20.4 million in Ukraine, 2.1 million in Turkmenistan, 1.6 million in Uzbekistan and 1.1 million in Armenia). In addition to standard voice services, Co. provides improved services, including voice mail, short message service, general packet radio service, and various SMS- and GPRS-based information and entertainment services.

Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC

Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO. Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO (MMVB-RTS OAO) is a Russia-based integrated stock exchange that provides electronic trade organization, clearing and settlements on trades, depository and information services. The Company provides trading and settlement services in such segments of the financial market as foreign exchange (FX) market, federal bonds market, market of derivative financial instruments, cash equities market, corporate and regional fixed income market, commodities market, as well as market for state and municipal orders. The Company was established as a result of the merger between MMVB ZAO and RTS OAO. It operates through six branches and three representative offices. As of February 27, 2013, the Company's major shareholder was the Central bank of the Russian Federation with a stake of 22.47%. In January 24, 2014, the Company sold its whole stake in MMVB-IT ZAO.

NOVATEK JSC

Novatek is an independent gas producer and natural gas producer in Russia. Co. is engaged in the exploration, production, and processing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. Co.'s upstream activities are concentrated in the Yamal-Nenets region, which is a natural gas producing area and accounts for a significant part of Russia's natural gas production. Co.'s three core fields are located in the regions of Yurkharovskoye, East Tarkosalinskoye and Khancheyskoye. Co. maintains natural gas reserves of approximately 1,144 bcm. Co.'s total net proved reserves totals around 8,088 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe).

Novatek Microelectronics Corp.

NOVATEK MICROELECTRONICS CORP. is a Taiwan-based company principally engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture and distribution of wafers. The Company's primary products include flat-panel display drive wafers and system-on-chip (SOC) wafers. The flat-panel display drive wafers mainly include large-size panel drive wafers, light emitting diode (LED) drive wafers, as well as mobile communication portable consumer panels drive wafers. The SOC wafers include liquid crystal display (LCD) panel control wafers, digital set top box and multimedia control wafers, digital still camera control wafers, digital video disk (DVD) player wafers, digital photo frame wafers and image sensor wafers. The Company mainly operates its businesses in Taiwan and the Asian-Pacific regions.

O Key Group

O'key Group is a Russian retailer. Co.'s principal business activity is operation of retail chain in Russia under brand name O'KEY. Co. provides customers with fresh produce (fresh foods and delicatessen products) and non-food goods (cosmetics, clothing, shoes, household cleaning products, domestic appliances, toys, sports and fitness products, etc.). Co.'s stores follow two formats: hypermarkets and supermarkets. Co. manages approximately 71 stores (42 hypermarkets and 29 supermarkets) across North Western, Southern, Central, Urals and Siberian regions.

Oil company LUKOIL PJSC Sponsored ADR

Rosneft Oil Co.

OJSC OC Rosneft is a vertically-integrated Russian oil and gas company with upstream and downstream operations in each of Russia's oil-producing regions. Headquartered in Moscow, Co. operates ten oil and gas producing enterprises across Russia and is involved in over ten exploration projects. In addition to its upstream operations, Co. also owns two refineries, which have a combined capacity of 10 million tons per year, as well as four main oil export terminals and a nationwide network of over 600 service stations. Co.'s downstream operations consist of its crude oil export structure, refining operations and nationwide network of marketing subsidiaries.

Rosneft Oil Co. Sponsored GDR RegS

Rostelecom PJSC

Rostelecom PJSC provides communication services (including local, intra-zone, long-distance domestic and international fixed-line telephone services, mobile services), data transmission, Internet, Pay TV, VPN and data centers services, rent of communication channels and radio communication services in the territory of Russian Federation. Co. operates the main intercity network and the international telecommunications gateways of the Russian Federation, carrying voice and data traffic that originates in its own network and other national and international operators' networks to other national and international operators for termination.

RussNeft

NK Russneft' PAO is a Russia-based company engaged in the oil and gas industry. It is mainly involved in the extraction and distribution of crude oil, as well as production of associated petroleum gas (APG), natural gas and gas processing. The Company and its subsidiaries hold more than100 subsoil licenses and operate over 125 oilfields. The Company's extraction operations are structured into three geographical groups: West Siberian Group, Volga Region Group and Central Siberian Group. In addition, the Company operates on the territory of Azerbaijan. NK Russneft' PAO operates in various regions of Russia and in Belarus. The Company has its own research and technology center. The Company supplies oil both to Russian market and to export markets of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and other countries, including Hungary and Slovakia.

Sistema PJSFC

Sistema is a telecommunications and technology investment group based in Russia. Co. invests in, and manages a range of companies which operate in the telecommunications, oil and energy, high technology, banking and other sectors. The main focus of Co.'s activities is service-based industries. Co.'s operations are organized along four segments: Telecommunications, Technology and Industry, Consumer Assets and Oil and Energy. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities include: wireless telecommunications services , IT and systems integration, cable TV, manufacturing of radiotechnical equipment, oil, gas and energy production, banking activities, trading and investing and financing activities.

Surgutneftegas PJSC

Surgutneftegaz is vertically integrated oil company based in Russia. Co.'s activities include prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbons, oil and oil and- gas fields development and construction; oil products and petrochemicals manufacturing and marketing; power generation; gas processing and gas products marketing. Co.'s operations expand beyond Western Siberia in 3 oil production centers, two of which, in Eastern Siberia and Timano- Pechora, are to be built up within the next 3 years. Co. operates in 16 constituent territories of the Russian Federation from Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) to Kaliningradskaya Oblast. Co.'s mineral resource base comprises 134 license areas of 120,000 sq. km.

TATNEFT PJSC

Tatneft PJSC and its subsidiaries are engaged in crude oil exploration, development and production principally in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Co. is a holding structure, which incorporates oil and gas production boards, crude oil and gas refining companies, as well as enterprises and servicing works selling the crude oil and also the products of crude oil and gas refining and petrochemical products. In addition to this, Co. is also participating in the banking and insurance activities. Co.'s operations are divided into the following main segments: Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Petrochemicals.

Transneft PJSC Pref.

Transneft is an oil pipeline group based in the Russian Federation. Co. and its subsidiaries operate a crude oil pipeline system totalling 50,142 km. Co. transport millions of tons of crude oil to domestic and export markets. Co. produces a substantial majority of the crude oil in the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, Co., through Group Transnefteproduct operates an oil products pipeline system in the Russian Federation and in the Republics of Belarus and Ukraine totalling 18,746 km. Through its associate OOO LatRosTrans, Co. operates an interconnected system in the Latvian Republic.

Unipro

E.ON Russia is engaged in the wholesale electricity market, it produces and sells electric and heat power. As of Dec. 31, 2012, the structure of Co. includes five heat power plants with the total installed capacity of 10,345 MW/2,125.9 Gcal/h: Surgutskaya GRES-2 (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, Tyumen Region), Berezovskaya GRES (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Shaturskaya GRES (Moscow Region), Smolenskaya GRES (Smolensk Region) and Yaivinskaya GRES (Perm Territory).

VEON Ltd. Sponsored ADR

X5 Retail Group N.V. Sponsored GDR RegS

X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.

Yandex NV Class A

Yandex is an internet and technology company that operates an internet search engine in Russia. Co. builds intelligent products and services powered by machine learning. Co.'s products and services are based on complex, unique technologies that are not easily replicated. Co. generates substantially all of its revenues from online advertising. Co. also generates revenues from its e-commerce offerings, classifieds and e-hailing service. Co.'s businesses are organized in the following operating segments: Search and Portal; E-commerce; Taxi; Classifieds and Experimental businesses.

Provider
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity

The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.

The Institutional Equity Research team consists of roughly 15 analysts, both in Vienna and the CEE countries. Our analysts provide long-standing sector expertise in tandem with profound local market know how and a sectoral approach across the entire region.

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