Russian Oil&Gas Sector Report - 2021e shifts eyes to gas as tax changes hit OILs
We have revised our forecasts and recommendation in response to the new tax regulation and changes in key assumptions. The main negative impact is expected on Tatneft (HOLD) with a 14% cut in 2021e EBITDA, Gazprom Neft (HOLD) will also suffer with a 14% decline of 2021e EBITDA and LUKoil (BUY) should also lose about 8% of its 2021e EBITDA. Rosneft (BUY), in turn, will have a relatively low impact of an only 3% EBITDA decline. Based on our new assumptions, 2021e EV/EBITDA multiples of Russian oils under our coverage looks close to average levels before the oil decline (2013 - 4.5x). However, Tatneft still trades with a slight premium to the sector average and to its historical levels. In our opinion, due to lower dividend payments and the additional risk of a tax burden increase after 2023e, Tatnefts multiples should align with the sector or even trade with a discount. We also believe that the market underestimates Surgutneftegas' both ordinary and preferred shares as the cash pile is still not priced in and preferred shares offer a competitive average dividend yield of 10% in 2020e-22e. We believe that the gas sector has clearer perspectives and both Novatek (BUY) and Gazprom (BUY) have high competitiveness due to low production costs, which should allow both to survive during the period of low prices and even increase gas sales. However, we expect that Gazprom could distribute its cash flows to minorities through dividends earlier than Novatek. Overall, we prefer the gas sector to oil, with Gazprom as the top pick, while in oils we prefer both Rosneft and Surgutneftegas preferred shares.
Gazprom Neft PJSC is vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, CIS and internationally. Co.'s principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and market ing operations through its retail outlets. Co.'s Upstream segment includes the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), oil field services. Co.'s Downstream segment processes crude into refined products and purchases and sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products (refining and marketing).
PJSC Gazprom is a gas company based in Russia. Co.'s principal activity is the sale of gas. Co. is also involved in other types of activities which include leasing of assets, gas transportation and storage services, sale of gas condensate and refined products. Co. and its subsidiaries and associates operates gas pipelines systems in Russia. Co. is responsible for substantially all gas production and high pressure gas transportation in the Russian Federation. Co. is also a major exporter of gas to European countries. Co. is directly involved in exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons, production of gas and other hydrocarbons and domestic and export sale of gas and other hydrocarbons.
Novatek is an independent gas producer and natural gas producer in Russia. Co. is engaged in the exploration, production, and processing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. Co.'s upstream activities are concentrated in the Yamal-Nenets region, which is a natural gas producing area and accounts for a significant part of Russia's natural gas production. Co.'s three core fields are located in the regions of Yurkharovskoye, East Tarkosalinskoye and Khancheyskoye. Co. maintains natural gas reserves of approximately 1,144 bcm. Co.'s total net proved reserves totals around 8,088 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe).
NOVATEK MICROELECTRONICS CORP. is a Taiwan-based company principally engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture and distribution of wafers. The Company's primary products include flat-panel display drive wafers and system-on-chip (SOC) wafers. The flat-panel display drive wafers mainly include large-size panel drive wafers, light emitting diode (LED) drive wafers, as well as mobile communication portable consumer panels drive wafers. The SOC wafers include liquid crystal display (LCD) panel control wafers, digital set top box and multimedia control wafers, digital still camera control wafers, digital video disk (DVD) player wafers, digital photo frame wafers and image sensor wafers. The Company mainly operates its businesses in Taiwan and the Asian-Pacific regions.
PJSC Lukoil is a vertically-integrated oil company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Co. is engaged in all main sectors of the modern oil business including supplies, refining, marketing, transportation, petrochemicals and oil-related activities. Co.'s operations are divided into five business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Marketing and Distribution; Chemicals; Power Generation and Other Business Segments. Co. owns and operates refineries in Bulgaria (LUKOIL Neftochim Bourgas AD) and Romania (Petrotel-LUKOIL).
OJSC OC Rosneft is a vertically-integrated Russian oil and gas company with upstream and downstream operations in each of Russia's oil-producing regions. Headquartered in Moscow, Co. operates ten oil and gas producing enterprises across Russia and is involved in over ten exploration projects. In addition to its upstream operations, Co. also owns two refineries, which have a combined capacity of 10 million tons per year, as well as four main oil export terminals and a nationwide network of over 600 service stations. Co.'s downstream operations consist of its crude oil export structure, refining operations and nationwide network of marketing subsidiaries.
Surgutneftegaz is vertically integrated oil company based in Russia. Co.'s activities include prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbons, oil and oil and- gas fields development and construction; oil products and petrochemicals manufacturing and marketing; power generation; gas processing and gas products marketing. Co.'s operations expand beyond Western Siberia in 3 oil production centers, two of which, in Eastern Siberia and Timano- Pechora, are to be built up within the next 3 years. Co. operates in 16 constituent territories of the Russian Federation from Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) to Kaliningradskaya Oblast. Co.'s mineral resource base comprises 134 license areas of 120,000 sq. km.
Tatneft PJSC and its subsidiaries are engaged in crude oil exploration, development and production principally in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Co. is a holding structure, which incorporates oil and gas production boards, crude oil and gas refining companies, as well as enterprises and servicing works selling the crude oil and also the products of crude oil and gas refining and petrochemical products. In addition to this, Co. is also participating in the banking and insurance activities. Co.'s operations are divided into the following main segments: Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Petrochemicals.
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