RDQ Economics

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​RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.

Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.

The founders of RDQ Economics, John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, have a combined experience of 26 years on Wall Street, 12 years of experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and nine years in the independent research space. John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
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Weekly Macro Brief: Next week's Fed meeting, Brexit thoughts, strong e...

In this week's Macro Brief we preview next week's FOMC meeting and discuss Brexit developments after this week's drama. Our chart of the week illustrates the strength of business equipment production, which is in contrast to recent soft equipment spending data.

12/14/18 December 14, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
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Strong U.S. retail sales report for November

Retail sales excluding autos, building materials and gasoline—the PCE control group for GDP—rose 0.9% in November, which was much stronger than expected.  In addition, this measure of core retail sales for October was upwardly revised to 0.7% from 0.3%, though this was partially offset by a 0.1%-point downward revision to September core sales. Overall retail sales rose 0.2% in November, slightly above forecasts,  gasoline station sales dropped 2.3% (on lower gasoline prices).  The strength of co...

12/14/18 December 14, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
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Core CPI inflation picked up slightly to 2.2% in November

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in November, in line with expectations.  The year-over-year core inflation rate picked up slightly to 2.2% from 2.1%.  Overall CPI prices were flat (with energy prices down 2.2%) and the 12-month headline inflation rate fell to 2.2% from 2.5%.  The Fed heads into its December policy meeting with both headline and core CPI running at 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, which is a pace that is broadly consistent with PCE price inflation running around the Fed’s 2% target.

12/12/18 December 12, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
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Macro Quick Hit: Will The Fed Get Faked Out On Inflation?

The latest PCE prices data showed a slowing in the year-over-year core inflation rate.  While it appears that Fed officials still mostly view inflation as being close to their 2% target some have made references to the recent softer readings.  We do not think that underlying inflation is slowing, however, there is a technical reason why inflation rates may moderate in the near-term.  We argue why the Fed should avoid getting faked out by either a slowing in as-reported core PCE price gains late ...

12/11/18 December 11, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Weekly Macro Brief: Data check, the yield curve, leading indicators

In this week's Macro Brief—given continued market volatility—we do a reality check of the recent economic data reports, we provide some thoughts on the Treasury yield curve, and we discuss leading indicators within the real economic data.

12/07/18 December 7, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Weekly Macro Brief: Next week's Fed meeting, Brexit thoughts, strong e...

In this week's Macro Brief we preview next week's FOMC meeting and discuss Brexit developments after this week's drama. Our chart of the week illustrates the strength of business equipment production, which is in contrast to recent soft equipment spending data.

12/14/18 December 14, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Strong U.S. retail sales report for November

Retail sales excluding autos, building materials and gasoline—the PCE control group for GDP—rose 0.9% in November, which was much stronger than expected.  In addition, this measure of core retail sales for October was upwardly revised to 0.7% from 0.3%, though this was partially offset by a 0.1%-point downward revision to September core sales. Overall retail sales rose 0.2% in November, slightly above forecasts,  gasoline station sales dropped 2.3% (on lower gasoline prices).  The strength of co...

12/14/18 December 14, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Core CPI inflation picked up slightly to 2.2% in November

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in November, in line with expectations.  The year-over-year core inflation rate picked up slightly to 2.2% from 2.1%.  Overall CPI prices were flat (with energy prices down 2.2%) and the 12-month headline inflation rate fell to 2.2% from 2.5%.  The Fed heads into its December policy meeting with both headline and core CPI running at 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, which is a pace that is broadly consistent with PCE price inflation running around the Fed’s 2% target.

12/12/18 December 12, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Macro Quick Hit: Will The Fed Get Faked Out On Inflation?

The latest PCE prices data showed a slowing in the year-over-year core inflation rate.  While it appears that Fed officials still mostly view inflation as being close to their 2% target some have made references to the recent softer readings.  We do not think that underlying inflation is slowing, however, there is a technical reason why inflation rates may moderate in the near-term.  We argue why the Fed should avoid getting faked out by either a slowing in as-reported core PCE price gains late ...

12/11/18 December 11, 2018 2 EN
Conrad DeQuadros ... (+2)
  • Conrad DeQuadros
  • John Ryding
Free Trial

Weekly Macro Brief: Data check, the yield curve, leading indicators

In this week's Macro Brief—given continued market volatility—we do a reality check of the recent economic data reports, we provide some thoughts on the Treasury yield curve, and we discuss leading indicators within the real economic data.

12/07/18 December 7, 2018 2 EN

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