January US Employment Report
Employment continued to grow robustly in January, however, the market focus for the March rate decision appears to be on slower growth in average hourly earnings than expected and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. We believe the probability of a rate hike on March 15 is significantly higher than implied by fed funds futures and we expect that Yellen will give some signal in her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that the next FOMC meeting is a live one with the decision depending on yet to be released data on employment and inflation.
RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.
Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
The founders of RDQ Economics, John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, have a combined experience of 26 years on Wall Street, 12 years of experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and nine years in the independent research space. John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.
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