Manufacturing growing strongly but facing price pressures, capacity constraints, and tariff-related disruptions
The ISM manufacturing index moderated by a little more than consensus forecasts, falling to 59.3 in March from 60.8 in February. According to the ISM, manufacturing firms are experiencing strong demand but are “struggling to keep up” given capacity constraints. Input cost pressures are widespread and severe, while the Administration's trade policies are negatively affecting American manufacturers. Nonetheless, despite these headwinds, manufacturing activity remained robust at the end of the first quarter.
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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