Revisiting Unemployment, Participation, and Wage Growth
The June employment report raised questions again about whether there is hidden slack in the labor market as the labor force surged 601,000 due to an increase in labor force participation to 62.9% from 62.7%. Putting aside the issue of the inherent volatility of the household survey, the mix of labor force shifts by gender suggests something quirky in the June participation data. What is clear, however, is that workers are becoming increasingly willing to quit their job in search of alternative employment. Historically, an increase in the willingness to quit employment has been associated with faster wage growth.
RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.
Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
The founders of RDQ Economics, John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, have a combined experience of 26 years on Wall Street, 12 years of experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and nine years in the independent research space. John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.
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