INFORME DIARIO 30 OCTUBRE (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: Aena, Ence, Iberdrola, Idea preview resultados, Logista, Santander. EUROPA: Airbus, Essilor, Idea preview resultados, L’Oréal, Volkswagen.A la espera de la Fed
Estabilidad en los principales Ãndices europeos, en una jornada de transición hasta la reunión de la Fed en el dÃa de hoy donde se espera un recorte de tipos de 25 p.b.. En el Euro STOXX los mejores sectores fueron Construcción y Farma frente a las caÃdas de Telecos (lastrados por Orange) y R. Básicos (lastrados por Stora Enzo). Por el lado macro, en España el déficit conjunto de las administraciones públicas se situó en el -2,08% hasta agosto situándose por encima del objetivo para 2019 (2%). El desfase se debe al aumento del gasto de la Seguridad Social y las comunidades autónomas. Por otra parte, las ventas al por menor de septiembre avanzaron más de lo esperado. En Europa J. Weidman reclamó que el uso del QE sólo se limitase a situaciones excepcionales. En R. Unido el Partido Laborista finalmente respaldó el adelanto electoral propuesto por B. Johnson para el 12 de diciembre lo que en el fondo se transformará en una especie de referéndum por un lado respaldando el Brexit de Johnson o por otro el no Brexit impulsado por los laboristas (pero con un lÃder con poco respaldo). En EE.UU. la confianza del consumidor de octubre decepcionó bajando hasta los mÃnimos de marzo aunque los nuevos máximos en el S&P500 apuntan a una recuperación noviembre si el mercado laboral continúa sólido. En el inmobiliario, las ventas de viviendas pendientes de septiembre subieron más de lo esperado mientras los precios de las grandes ciudades registraron el menor crecimiento desde ago’12. En Rdos. empresariales de EE.UU. Merck&Co, Pfizer, ConocoPhillips, Kellogg y General Motors salieron mejor, Mastercard salió en lÃnea.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abren sin una clara dirección pero con un sesgo bajista ante la noticia sobre un posible retraso en la firma de la fase I del acuerdo entre EE.UU. y China. Los futuros del S&P cotizan con caÃdas del -0,11% (el S&P 500 cerró con caÃdas del -0,25% respecto al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 13,20%). Los mercados asiáticos que están abiertos cotizan con caÃdas (Japón -0,57%Hong Kong -0,49%).
Hoy destaca en EE.UU. la reunión de la Fed, la encuesta ADP de empleo de octubre y la primera lectura del PIB del 3T’19. En España la inflación preliminar de octubre. En Alemania el desempleo de octubre. En la Eurozona el indicador de clima económico de octubre. En Brasil reunión de tipos Selic. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. Moody’s, General Electric, Garmin, Facebook, Motorola y Apple entre otros. En subastas, Italia (6.250 M euros en bonos a 5, 10 años y floating 2025), Alemania (2.300 M euros en bonos a 5 años) y Grecia (625 M euros en letras a 6 meses).
ESPAÑA
Resultados España 3T’19 destacados la próxima semana.
De los valores que publican Rdos. 3T’19 la semana que viene esperamos impacto positivo en: (i) Indra, donde se confirmarÃa la recuperación de márgenes y el crecimiento de ventas en una acción que acumula un performance negativo (-18% vs IBEX) desde el 12/06 cuando se anunció el interés por ITP (operación ya truncada), (ii) Logista, esperamos Rdos sin sorpresas y alineados con el guidance (crecimiento de EBIT de dÃgito sencillo medio-alto), lo que podrÃa tener buen impacto tras el mal performance en 2019 (-19% vs IBEX). Por el lado negativo, Acciona, donde los Rdos. pondrÃan de manifiesto la dificultad de crecer de forma orgánica en 2019 asà como una mayor complejidad de su estructura de negocios (falta de foco estratégico).
AENA. Rdos. 3T’19 por encima de lo previsto en EBITDA. Anuncian su guidance de tráfico para 2020. VENDER
Rdos. 3T’19 por encima de lo previsto en EBITDA (+4,6% vs +3,0% esperado) con unos márgenes mejores (70,3% vs 69,6% consenso), donde la clave ha estado en la aceleración en el área internacional (5,6% ventas). Pese a esta buena evolución, esperamos que los crecimientos en tráfico continúen degradándose, lo que está en lÃnea con lo previsto por AENA, que ha anunciado una mejora del +1,1% para 2020 (vs +4,8% a 9 meses’19 y +2,8% BS(e)). Con todo, creemos que se tratarÃa de un escenario base y aún hay margen para cierto repunte si la macro en España se mantiene estable. Pese a ello, estos objetivos presentados anticipan la ralentización del Topline, lo que unido a la falta de potencial nos hace seguir recomendando VENDER.
ENCE. Malos rdos. 3T’19 aunque bastante en lÃnea con lo esperado a nivel EBITDA
Publicó al cierre unos malos Rdos. 3T’19 aunque bastante en lÃnea con lo esperado a nivel EBITDA. Asà las ventas caen un -8,4% vs 3T’18 comportándose algo mejor de esperado (-11,1% BS(e) y -12,6% consenso) sobre todo por un mayor volumen de ventas. El EBITDA del trimestre se situó en los 34,2 M euros, lo que implica un descenso muy acusado vs 3T’18 (-56,7%) que estarÃa en lÃnea con lo esperado (-56,3% BS(e) y -55,6% consenso), si bien el margen se situarÃa ligeramente por debajo de lo esperado (17,0% vs 17,7% BS(e) y 18,3% el consenso) por peores márgenes de la división de renovables. Cabe destacar el mejor comportamiento de lo esperado del cash cost (376 euros/Tn en el trimestre vs 380 euros/Tn BS(e)) que se ha visto compensado por unos mayores descuentos (34% vs 33% BS(e)). El BDI cae un -93% vs 3T’18 (en lÃnea con lo esperado) situándose en 2,8 M euros. A pesar de que los rdos. han estado bastante en lÃnea con lo esperado y que el valor lleva una caÃda acumulada del –50% vs IBEX en 2019, no descartarÃamos una acogida negativa o moderadamente negativa por parte del mercado en la medida que la caÃda del EBITDA es muy significativa (-57% vs 3T’18) y la división de renovables se ha comportado algo peor de lo esperado. Estaremos atentos a la conference call de las 16:00h por las razones que pueda dar el management sobre las renovables y el incremento de los descuentos
SANTANDER. 3T’19 mejor que consenso desde M. Neto. Elevada generación orgánica de CET 1. COMPRAR
Rdos. totalmente en lÃnea con nuestras estimaciones a nivel de M. Neto pero un +2,2% por encima de consenso (por mayores comisiones y ROF), que más que compensan la mayor debilidad en M. Intereses y por mejor comportamiento de costes). Provisiones (CoR y genéricas) en lÃnea y tasa fiscal más reducida. Este hecho es el que explica la desviación en BDI vs nuestras estimaciones (+13%, +22% vs consenso). Por divisiones, mejor en España (por ROF), peor en Reino Unido (mayor debilidad), en lÃnea Brasil y algo peor que el consenso en EE.UU. El CET1 FL se sitúa en un 11,07% (vs 11,10% BS(e)) igual que 1S’19 con muy buena generación orgánica +19 p.b. que compensan los mayores cargos regulatorios (-17 p.b.). Esperamos buena reacción en Bolsa.
EUROPA
Resultados Euro Stoxx 50 3T’19 destacados la próxima semana.
De los valores que publican Rdos. 3T’19 la semana que viene del EuroStoxx50 esperamos impacto positivo en: (i) Société Générale donde el consenso no es exigente y esperamos que sigan mostrando tendencias de estabilización en Francia y CIB, y (ii) Unicredit, que podrÃa anunciar nuevas mejoras en costes. Por el lado negativo destacamos: i) Intesa Sanpaolo, donde los débiles fundamentales se pondrán aún más de manifiesto en estos Rdos. y podrÃa llevar a correcciones en el valor tras el buen performance reciente.
AIRBUS. Rdos. 3T’19 mejores. Recortan guidance de entregas y FCF
Rdos. 3T’19 mejores de lo esperado en EBIT ajustado (+1,8% vs -7,1% BS(e) y -6,8% consenso) por Aviación Comercial (~93% EBIT ajustado) que crece un +1,5% pese al menor número de entregas en el trimestre (-18). El margen de esta división se sitúa en el 12,9% (vs 12,3% en 3T’18). Respecto al guidance’19, rebajan a 860 el objetivo de entregas (vs 880/890 aviones antes y 888 BS(e)), citando las dificultades con el ramp up de A321 ACF (más complejo), y como consecuencia rebajan también el guidance de FCF a c. 3.000 M euros (vs c. 4.000 M euros antes y 4.200 M euros BS(e)). Mantienen eso sà el guidance de EBIT ajustado. El valor ha subido un +10% absoluto desde el 2/10, por lo que pensamos que la rebaja del guidance pesará negativamente en la acogida. Pese a que estos Rdos. 3T’19 han estado por encimo de lo esperado, el valor ha subido un +10% absoluto desde el 2/10, por lo que pensamos que la rebaja del guidance de entregas y FCF pesará negativamente en la acogida.
ESSILORLUXOTTICA. Ventas 3T’19 favorables marcadas por la aceleración en LfL
Ventas 3T’19 por encima de nuestras previsiones (+8,4% vs +6,3% BS(e)) gracias a un efecto tipo de cambio positivo (+3,2% vs +3% BS(e)), pero sobre todo a una fuerte aceleración del LfL (+5,2% vs +3,8% BS(e) y +4,1% en 2T). Esto se debe principalmente a la contribución de los negocios vinculados a Essilor (45% ventas) que crecen en LfL un +7,5% (vs +4,4% BS(e) y +6,1% en 2T), y al repunte de Retail (37% ventas) que acelera su ventas comparables hasta un +4,2% (vs 3% BS(e) y +2,7% BS(e)). Por áreas geográficas destacamos el mayor ritmo de crecimiento LfL frente a 2T en Norteamérica (53% ventas; +4,2% vs +2,6% en 2T) y Europa (24% ventas; +6% vs +4,3% en 2T), lo que ante la falta de más detalles acerca del margen en 3T (sólo publican ventas) trasmite un sesgo positivo, ya que se tratarÃa de las zonas donde se venden productos con mayor rentabilidad. Rdos. positivos donde más allá de la buena evolución en LfL, el buen ritmo en Desarrollados deberÃa trasmitir un nivel de confianza adicional. La confirmación del guidance’19 aunque positivo, no supone ninguna novedad (es laxo y fácilmente alcanzable). Con todo, esperamos una acogida favorable ante la discreta evolución del valor en el último mes (-0,4% vs ES50).
L’OREAL Ventas 3T’19 mejores con aceleración del LfL por Productos de Lujo en Asia. VENDER
Ventas 3T’19 mejores con un crecimiento LfL del +7,8% (vs +6,4% previsto y +6,8% en 2T’19) muy superior al +5,5% del sector por Productos de Lujo (~38% ventas; +13,8% LfL vs +10,7% esperado y +12,2% en 2T’19) y especialmente en Asia (~32% ventas), donde mantienen un fuerte ritmo de crecimiento (+22,6% LfL vs +25,5% en 2T’19) a pesar de las protestas en Hong Kong. Productos de Consumo (~42% ventas; +2,7% LfL LfL en lÃnea vs +2,8% en 2T’19) continúa penalizado por EE.UU. (-1,4% LfL en 3T’19) aunque esperan que la división mantenga cuota en 2020 por las iniciativas comerciales en este mercado. Más allá del positivo impacto inicial, no tenemos potencial (
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Air Partner is an aviation services company. Co. provides air charter services to customers using operator aircraft to supply the flight. Co. has four segments: Commercial Jets, which provides aircraft charter, remarketing and short-term aircraft leasing services; Private Jets, which provides small aircraft and jets charter, bespoke service and prepaid JetCard product; Freight, which provides cargo transport aircraft charter and part-charter for regular and bespoke requirements; and Consulting & Training, which consist of Baines Simmons that provides aviation safety consulting and training services, and Clockwork Research that provides fatigue risk management consulting services.
Applus Services SA is a Spain-based company that provides inspection, testing and quality assurance services. The Company's activities are divided into five segments: Applus+ RTD, which provides non-destructive testing services mainly to the oil industry; Applus+ Velosi-Norcontrol, which offers solutions for technical assistance, supervision, inspection, quality control testing, certification and consulting services mainly to industrial, electrical, oil and telecommunications facilities; Applus+ Laboratories, which focuses on laboratory testing, system certification and product development services within aerospace, industrial and consumer goods sectors, among others; Applus+ Automotive, which is responsible for the vehicle roadworthiness testing services, and Applus+ IDIADA, which delivers design, engineering, testing and certification services mainly to car manufacturers. The Company operates in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.
Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.
Bankinter is the parent company of a group engaged in banking activities. Services provided include: investment banking; capital market services; financial services insurance; international services such as foreign exchange transactions and travelers' checks; wholesale corporate banking; and retail and private banking services. Co. offers its products and services through the following channels of distribution: branch network; telephone banking, interactive (software) banking; agents; and Internet banking. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had assets totalling Euro57,332,974,000 and deposits totalling Euro29,966,129,000.
Bayer is a life sciences group based in Germany. Co.'s operations are organized along three divisions: Pharmaceuticals (engaged in prescription pharmaceuticals for cardiology and women's healthcare); Consumer Health (engaged in non-prescription products in dermatology, dietary supplement, analgesic, gastrointestinal, allergy, cold and flu, foot care, sun protection and cardiovascular risk prevention categories); and CropScience (engaged in the development of seeds and plant traits; crop protection; and for gardens, the green industry and non-agricultural pest control). Co. also maintains an Animal Health business unit engaged in the development of products for farm and companion animals.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Essilor International (Compagnie Generale d'Optique) designs, manufactures and sells ophthalmic lenses, ophthalmic optical instruments and equipment. Co.'s activities are divided into three segments: Lenses and Optical Instruments (Co. designs, manufactures and customizes corrective lenses such as: Varilux (progressive lenses); anti-reflective, smudge-proof and anti-static lenses (Crizal); Nikon lenses, Transitions variable-tint lenses and Kodak lenses under agreements; polarized lenses (Xperio) and fog-proof lenses (Optifog)), Equipment (Co. produces, distributes and sells equipment and consumables used by prescription laboratories) and Readers (Co. designs and sells reading glasses).
Fauji Cement is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of cement.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.
L'Oreal acts as a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. plays a strategic coordination role and scientific, industrial and marketing coordination role on a global basis. Co. develops, manufactures and commercializes products for Skin care, Hair care, Make-up, Perfumes, Toiletries and deodorants, and Oral cosmetics. Co. has three branches: Cosmetics, Body shop and Dermatology. Co.'s principal activities comprise four divisions: Professional Products, Consumer Products, L'Oreal Luxe and Active Cosmetics. The Body Shop branch offers various cosmetics and toiletry products. The Dermatology branch offers topical dermatology prescription, and corrective and aesthetic dermatology.
Masmovil Ibercom SA, formerly World Wide Web Ibercom SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the telecommunication sector. The Company focuses on the sale and distribution services for Internet, Data Center and Telecommunications. The Company's product and services portfolio comprises Internet access through Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) and Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line (SDSL) technologies, Internet domains and Domains Management and Registration Service through IberDNS application, Web hosting, virtual servers, dedicated servers, telephony services and routers. The Company also offers collocation services through two Internet Data Centers located in Madrid and San Sebastian. It operates through subsidiaries, such as Embou Nuevas Tecnologias SL and Ebesis Sistemas SL, among others. The Company owns a number of brand names, such as Pepephone, Yoigo and Llamaya.
Gestevision Telecinco is a television network company based in Spain. Co. heads a group of dependent companies, which form the Telecinco Group. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the management and commercial exploitation of a television network. Co.'s television network acquires, produces, and distributes audiovisual content. Co. also sells the network advertising airtime, carried out by its subsidiary. In addition, Co. is involved in the sale of other advertising products; production of news programs; the production and sale of audiovisual property rights; and teleshopping.
Prosegur Cash SA, formerly Prosegur Cit Holding SA, is a Spain-based company engaged in the provision of security services. The Company's activities are divided into three business areas: Logistics, Cash management and Outsourcing. The Logistics division focuses on the provision of local and international transport services of cash and other valuable goods. The Cash management division offers counting, processing, custody, preparation and delivery of notes and coins, as well as replenishment of automatic teller machines (ATMs). The Outsourcing division includes a number of support financial services, such as automation of retail operations through self-service cash automatization machines (MAEs), ATMs management, as well as branch forecasting, reconciliation, settlement and credit card support services. The Company operates through own branches and joint ventures in Europe, Central and South America, Africa, Asia and Australia. It operates through Contesta Teleservicios SAU.
Red Electrica is engaged in the transmission of electrical energy, the operation of the system and the management of the transmission network in the Spanish electricity system. In addition, through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, holding and management of foreign securities, co-ordination of international exchanges, provision of telecommunications services for third parties, provision of consultancy, engineering and construction services outside the Spanish electricity system, securing of funds, carrying out of financial transactions and provision of financial services.
Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.
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