IBERIAN DAILY 13 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, ELECTRICITY AND GAS SECTOR, GRIFOLS.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Markets become euphoric
The agreement between the US and China to lower tariffs fuelled global stock markets again. In the STOXX 600, most sectors (14/20) ended the week with gains, led by Basic Resources and Consumer Goods vs. Insurance and Utilities that suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, the agreement between the US and China is limited for the time being to 90 days, where the US will lower tariffs on Chinese products to 30% (10% reciprocal products and 20% on fentanyl crisis) from 145% and China will cut tariffs to 10% (vs. 125%), also pledging to lift non-tariff barriers. On another note, D. Trump insisted he will cut pharmaceutical costs by between -30% and 80%, with the Republicans launching a tax cut plan of US$ 4.5 Trillion. In Mexico, March’s industrial output climbed more than expected. In US business results, NRG and Fox beat expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with slight drops of around -0.2%, with the oil sector hit once more by the fall in crude oil prices. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.35% (the S&P 500 ended +0.53% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.15% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.7%).
Today in the UK we will learn the number of unemployed and March’s ILO unemployment rate, in Germany May’s ZEW and in the US April’s inflation and SMEs confidence.
COMPANY NEWS
GRIFOLS, OVERWEIGHT
The 1Q’25 results beat expectations on the operating level (€ 400 M of adjusted EBITDA vs. € 373 M BS(e) and € 390 M consensus), with better FCF performance, which reached € -62 M (vs. € -82 M BS(e)). NFD rose by +1% to € 8.15 Bn (vs. € 8.13 Bn BS(e)), whereas leverage fell by -0.1x to 4.5x NFD/adjusted EBITDA (4.8x reported), in line with our forecast (~4.5x). On the outlook level, the company maintains its guidance’25 (including the impact from the IRA) of between € 7.55-7.60 Bn of sales (vs. € 7.67 Bn consensus) and between € 1.88-1.93 Bn of adjusted EBITDA (vs. € 1.92 Bn consensus).
We expect a positive impact following the poor recent performance (-8% in 2025; -25% vs. IBEX).
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.
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