EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 DECEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, INSURANCE SECTOR.

Fed pivot slows after ECB meeting
Stock markets cheered the more dovish speech from the Fed, but gains were reeled in after Lagarde more or less ruled out the possibility of lowering interest rates. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were financial cyclicals like Real Estate and Basic Resources, whereas Insurance stood out with a -2% drop, followed by more moderate losses in Media and Pharma. On the macro side, in Europe the ECB kept rates unchanged and moved forward the halt to PEPP reinvestment to 2H’24 (€ -7.5 Bn/month), ending in Dec’24. In growth, the ECB cut its GDP’23-24 forecast to 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, vs. the previous 0.7% and 1.0%, as well as that of inflation to 5.4% and 2.7% vs. the previous 5.6% and 3.2%. In the UK, the BoE kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (for the fourth straight time) by a majority of six votes to three. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, while core retail sales rose unexpectedly in November and suggest solid, dynamic private consumption in 4Q’24. In Brazil, retail sales fell unexpectedly in October. In Japan, December’s manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, while the services PMI recovered to 52 from the previous 50.8. In China, November’s industrial output sped up more than expected, while retail sales rose less than expected and housing prices once again fell slightly more than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains in a market that is beginning to be overbought in the short term and with sentiment near euphoric levels. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.13% (the S&P 500 ended -0.15% lower vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 12.48). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.27%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.87%).
Today in the euro zone and the UK we will learn December’s manufacturing and services PMIs, in Brazil October’s economic activity index and in the US December’s Empire manufacturing index and November’s industrial output.