EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 MAY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ENAGÁS.

The Ibex remains unstoppable
Despite being a session of drops in most European stock markets, Italy and Spain rallied once again, with the IBEX breaking above 13,800 points. In the STOXX 600, most sectors (15/20) closed with losses, led by Consumer Goods and Pharma, with Construction and Banks rising the most. On the macro side, in Spain and Germany, April’s final inflation remained unchanged at the preliminary 2.2% and 2.1% YoY. From the ECB, F. Villaroy stated that Trump’s policies will have a negative effect on inflation in the US but not in Europe, opening the door to a new rate cut in June’s meeting. From the Fed, M. Daly stated the Fed could be patient regarding rate cuts, as it has growth and a solid job market, with inflation falling. On the geopolitical side, Putin confirmed that he will not attend the first peace talks in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia. In US business results, Cisco and STERIS beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of around -0.5% after the losses in Asia. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.3% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.83% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.96%).
Today in the UK we will learn the 1Q’25 GDP and March’s industrial output, in the euro zone March’s industrial output and in the US May’s Empire manufacturing index, production prices, retail sales and April’s industrial output. In US business results, Walmart, among others, will release its earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

ACCIONA / ACCIONA ENERGÍA, BOTH OVERWEIGHT
Highlights from the 1Q’25 trading statement:
(i) Energy (70% EV): Consolidated production totaled 6.6 TWh (+5.3%, thanks to the +22.4% international growth that offset the -11.9% drop in Spain, hit by the sale of hydro assets; without taking into consideration the scope of consolidation in Spain the drop would only have been -3.5% due to lower wind resources), with an average load factor of 30.1% (vs. 29.5% in 1Q’24) and an average price of € 72/MWh (+25.1% vs. 57.5% in 1Q’24: € 88/MW in Spain and € 60.50/MW international), beating the yearly estimate of € 55-60/MW. Total installed capacity reached 15.045 GW (+9.7% vs. 1Q’24), having added 346 MW in 1Q’25 and consolidated capacity stood at 13,324 MW (+8.1%). The EBITDA’25 target of €~1 Bn is maintained, with an additional contribution of € 500-750 M from asset rotation (the company expects to sell between € 1.5-1.7 Bn of a 4 GW portfolio), maintaining the production guidance of 27 TWh (despite the fact that 1Q’25 was slightly weaker) and they reduced the investment target to € 1.3 Bn (vs. € 1.5 Bn previously) due to the more uncertain conditions (US tariffs), also reducing the net installed capacity target in 2025 from 1 GW to 600 MW (with the 400 MW BESS project in the US on standby). Net ordinary investments for 1Q’25 reached € 650 M. The company has stated that the asset rotation plan continues, with no disruptions seen from the current situation, and for 2026 it will also follow a policy of prudent investments (not specified).
(ii) Infrastructures (13% EV): The strong business trends continue, both in volume and profitability. The backlog totals € 31.24 Bn (+9.4% vs. 2024), and including equity the aggregate portfolio stands at € 60.92 Bn (+13.1%), with the I-10 highway in Louisiana and the first group of tunnels in Melbourne standing out. In concessions, equity invested totals € 690 M (77 assets), whereas the expected investment portfolio through 2032 reaches € 2.2 Bn. In construction, activity levels in 1Q’25 rose as a result of the high order intake over the past few years and the solid business in Australia, Brazil and Poland.
(iii) Nordex (8% EV; known): Sales fell -8.8% to € 1.44 Bn due to lower installation levels and temporary production delays, with € 80 M of EBITDA (vs. € 52 M in 1Q’24), with a margin of 5.5% (vs. 3.3% in 1Q’24) due to higher contract quality and stable costs. Orders grew +4.6% to 2,182 MW and the backlog stands at € 13.46 Bn (vs. 12,778 MW in 2024). Selling prices rose +2.4% to € 0.87 M/MW. Following these results the company reiterated its targets for 2025 and in the medium term (subject to a stable macro backdrop).
(iv) Real Estate (8% EV): 19 homes have been delivered, but the target of 1,000-1,200 in 2025 has been maintained, with most in 4Q’25. The presale portfolio totals 699 units (+3.7% vs. 2024), which would be equivalent to € 274 M of revenues. GAV is € 1.81 Bn (+4% vs. 2024).
(v) Bestinver (1% EV): The assets under management total € 6.74 Bn (stable vs. 2023), whereas average assets under management grew +14.5% vs. 1Q’24.
(vi) Outlook for 2025: The company maintains its forecast of € 2.7-3.0 Bn of EBITDA, of which EBITDA from operations would total € 2.2-2.25 Bn and EBITDA from asset rotation € 500-750 M. As for capex, the expectation for the full year falls from €~3 Bn to €~2.8 Bn (€ 1.3 Bn corresponding to ANE, vs. the previous € 1.5 Bn, and €~1.5 Bn to the rest of the group), and the estimate of ending the year with indebtedness below 3.5x EBITDA from operations is maintained.
We welcome the release, especially due to the poor performance by ANE (-1% in absolute terms vs. +19.3% IBEX in 2025; despite the fact that ANA has done better, +20.3% in absolute terms), as the targets are maintained and ANE’s cautious investment policy was reiterated, which along with the expected asset rotation, should help preserve the balance sheet. The rest of the businesses in the ANA parent company show the previous solid trends continue. We will adjust our estimates to include this operating performance, and we maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation in both companies.