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IBERIAN DAILY 22 JANUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, BANKINTER, MELIÁ HOTELS, TELEFÓNICA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Trump announces agreement in principle on Greenland
European stock markets recovered from the initial sales and ended flat after Trump’s slightly more conciliatory message in Davos. Meanwhile, US markets closed with substantial gains thanks to the announcement by the US President of a “framework agreement” with NATO on the future of Greenland, and thus the tariff threat is over. In the STOXX 600, Basic Resource and Chemicals were the best performers, while Insurance and Food suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the UK, December’s inflation speeded up slightly more than expected to 3.4% whereas the core data remained at the previous 3.2% (below the consensus). In the euro zone, the European Parliament has halted the EU-Mercosur agreement and has sent it to European courts. In the US, October’s construction spending climbed more than expected whereas December’s pending home sales slowed down much more than expected. In Mexico, November’s retail sales rose above expectations. In US 4Q’25 Results Halliburton and The Travelers beat expectations, United Airlines and Prologis were in line and Johnson&Johnson released disappointing figures.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +1.0%, with strong performance especially in consumer goods (luxury and retail), technology and energy, whereas defence would be penalised. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.04% (the S&P 500 ended +0.37% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.13%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.81% and South Korea’s Kospi +0.87%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn January’s consumer confidence, in the US weekly jobless claims, the second reading of the 3Q’25 GDP and November’s personal spending. In 4Q’25 business results, Procter&Gamble, Abbot Laboratories, CSX and Intel, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

BANKINTER, UNDERWEIGHT
The company has released its 4Q’25 results, slightly above expectations in revenues (+1.3% vs. expected) thanks to fee revenues and costs slightly below forecasts (-1.1% vs. expected), leaving Net Profit +2.4% above expectations (+25.5% vs. 4Q’24; +23.4% BS(e) and +22.6% consensus). ROTE over the past 12 months reached 20% (19.4% in 3Q’25) and the NPL ratio fell to 1.94% (vs. 2.05% in 3Q’25). CET1 as of 4Q’25 reached 12.72% (vs. 12.94% in 3Q’25), explained by (i) organic generation (+111bps), (ii) RWAs (-86bps) and (iii) others (+6bps).
After rising less than the sector in the past three months (+10% vs. +20% sector), the reaction could be slightly positive, although we believe the stock is trading at a demanding level (~2x P/TE’26 vs. 1.6x sector) despite expecting a ROTE’26 of ~18% (15% sector). In any event, the key will lie in the guidance to be given in the conference call at 9:00 (CET), which will have to be demanding for the market not to be disappointed.