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IBERIAN DAILY 22 JULY + 2Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ALMIRALL, INDRA, MERLIN PROPERTIES, NATURGY.


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

A week of corrections
Last week saw profit taking, marked by C. Lagarde’s speech and risks about new export prohibitions to China to technology groups. In the STOXX 600, most sectors dropped last week (18/20), with Household and Telecoms being the only industries in positive territory vs. Technology and Basic Resources that ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the UK June’s retail sales slowed down more than expected, particularly bearing in mind only the core components. In the US, J. Biden dropped out of the presidential race in the end 100 days before the elections and endorsed K. Harris. In China, the PBoC cut the 1&5 loan rates by -10bps to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. In US business results, American Express and Travelers beat expectations whereas Halliburton was in line with expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of up to +0.5%, with growth outperforming value. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.29% (the S&P 500 ended -0.40% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.96%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.1%).
Today in Mexico we will learn May’s IGAE activity index and retail sales. In US business results, Verizon, WR Berkley y NXP Semiconductors, among others, will release their earnings.

COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL, OVERWEIGHT
2Q’24 Results in line on the operating level (EBITDA € 53 M vs. € 52 M BS(e) and € 50 M consensus), with NFD faring better, which fell by € 22 M on the quarter to € 77 M (0.4x NFD/EBITDA; vs. € 85 M BS(e)). The company kept its 2024 guidance unchanged of high single-digit sales growth (vs. +9.6% BS(e) and +9.1% consensus) and EBITDA between € 175-190 M (vs. € 183 M BS(e) and 186 M consensus).
The positive response to Ebglyss continues (sales € 7.2 M vs. € 7.7 M BS(e)), along with the robust performance of Ilumetri (sales € 52 M; +22% vs. 2Q’23), which we believe could provide a positive slant to today’s market reaction following the recent share price performance (+8% in 2024; -1.2% vs. IBEX).

MERLIN PROPERTIES, OVERWEIGHT
1H’24 Results are in line in rents and better in FFO. Gross rental revenues: € 248 M (+4.4% vs. +3.9% BS(e) and +4.8% consensus); FFO: € 148 M (+0.5% vs. -4.3% BS(e) and -4.1% consensus). Rents grew although slowing down as quarters go by. LfL rents rose by +3% (+4% as of 1Q’24) thanks to CPI.
FFO provided a positive surprise in the first half where higher operating costs were expected due to the ramp-up of the data centre business, as well as financial results although MRL reiterated its 2024 FFO guidance. The LfL GAV remained flat thanks to Data Centres (+13%), which offsets the rest of assets: offices -0.4%, logistic -0.6%, shopping centres -0.3%. NTA fell by -1.6% due to the dividends paid. We foresee a neutral market impact, reiterating our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.

2Q’24 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, on the positive side we highlight Ebro Foods (29/07), as the solid operating performance expected, along with a favourable raw material outlook, should allow management to be more optimistic for the year. This should have a positive impact on the share price, especially if we bear in mind the stock’s underperformance of -25% vs. the IBEX 35 over the past 12 months.