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INFORME DIARIO 02 ABRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, APPLUS, AENA, IBERDROLA, NATURGY, NH, SECTOR RENOVABLES, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, SAFRAN, SECTOR BANCOS, UNICREDIT.


Continúa la volatilidad y vuelven las pérdidas
Nueva jornada de pérdidas en todas las bolsas europeas el día en el que España superó los 100,000 casos de coronavirus. EE.UU. se convierte en el país con mayor número de afectados del mundo a la vez que cobra fuerza la posibilidad de un cuarto paquete de ayudas por 2 billones de dólares destinado a infraestructuras avanzado y la Administración comienza a analizar como instrumentar un rescate a las aerolíneas. En Europa se propone un fondo de 100.000 M euros para apoyar el desempleo generado por los Ertes. En el Euro STOXX, todos los sectores cerraron en negativo, con Recursos Básicos y Construcción liderando las caídas, mientras que Energía y Farma fueron los que menos cayeron. Por el lado macro, U. von der Leyen, propuso un nuevo plan de reducción de la jornada laboral para ayudar a los ciudadanos a conservar sus empleos durante la crisis. En EE.UU, la Fed aumentó la capacidad de préstamo del sector financiero al excluir las reservas y tenencias de treasuries del computo para calcular requisitos de capital. En el plano macro, el ISM manufacturero repuntó más de lo esperado aunque todavía no recoge los efectos del coronavirus, mientras que los gastos de construcción de febrero se contrajeron más de lo previsto. La encuesta ADP de empleo de marzo sorprendió al alza con una destrucción de empleo mucho menor a la esperada.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Tras la corrección de ayer, esperamos una apertura sin dirección clara. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +1,06% (el S&P 500 cerró con caídas del -0,95% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 57,06%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con caídas (Japón -1,55% y Hong Kong -0,40%).
Hoy en EE.UU. la balanza comercial de febrero, las peticiones de subsidio de desempleo de marzo y los pedidos de fábrica de febrero. En España datos de paro y afiliación a la seguridad social. Hoy, el Tesoro español emitirá bonos a 3,5,10 y 30 años (c. 6.000 M euros) y el francés a 8,9 y 20 años (c. 7.500 M euros).


ESPAÑA

AENA, COMPRAR
Anunció a cierre de mercado, que ha suscrito un conjunto de préstamos con varias entidades por un total de 1.075 M euros y que continúa negociando operaciones de financiación adicional que prevén firmar en las próximas semanas. Noticia positiva ya que permite a la compañía aumentar significativamente su liquidez (+56% vs antes) hasta 2.920 M euros (incluye pagarés no dispuestos por 495 M euros), y sigue dejando su endeudamiento en niveles razonables (2,3x DN/EBITDA). Esto, unido a las medidas de contención de costes anunciados las últimas semanas les debería permitir mantener la operativa y hacer frente a los compromisos financieros de los próximos 2 años (1.180 M euros) incluso en un entorno de fuerte contracción del tráfico.

EUROPA

SAFRAN. Fuerte impacto del COVID-19 en 2020, pero oportunidad a largo plazo. Cambiamos a COMPRAR
El fuerte deterioro de las previsiones para el sector por el COVID-19 nos lleva a revisar a la baja un -37% el EBIT’20e (-35% frente a 2019) por menores ingresos por Servicios (-25% en 2020) y entregas de motores (-52%). A medio plazo y en nuestro escenario central planteamos niveles normalizados de crecimiento en 2022 y revisamos un -21% en EBIT ajustado para 2020/24. En nuestro escenario negativo, la vuelta a un crecimiento normalizado se retrasa hasta 2023, dejando una revisión media 2020/24e del -34% en EBIT. Establecemos un P.O. de 103 euros/acc (+53% potencial, -30% vs antes), como media del P.O. de nuestro escenario central y negativo. Aunque hasta que no veamos un pico de contagios en países desarrollados no esperamos un rebote sostenido de la Bolsa creemos que a estos niveles SAF es una oportunidad de inversión de largo plazo en base a su liderazgo en la producción de motores de aviación comercial más demandados (>7 años de pedidos) y la solidez de sus ingresos recurrentes por mantenimiento.
Underlyings
Acciona SA

Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.

Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

APPLUS SERVICES S.A.

Applus Services SA is a Spain-based company that provides inspection, testing and quality assurance services. The Company's activities are divided into five segments: Applus+ RTD, which provides non-destructive testing services mainly to the oil industry; Applus+ Velosi-Norcontrol, which offers solutions for technical assistance, supervision, inspection, quality control testing, certification and consulting services mainly to industrial, electrical, oil and telecommunications facilities; Applus+ Laboratories, which focuses on laboratory testing, system certification and product development services within aerospace, industrial and consumer goods sectors, among others; Applus+ Automotive, which is responsible for the vehicle roadworthiness testing services, and Applus+ IDIADA, which delivers design, engineering, testing and certification services mainly to car manufacturers. The Company operates in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas.

Deutsche Telekom AG

Deutsche Telekom is engaged in the telecommunications services and information technology sectors. Co. operates as an integrated telecommunications provider. It is organized into four operating segments: Germany, Europe, and the United States; and Systems Solutions, as well as Group Headquarters and Shared Services. Co. provides fixed-network lines, broadband lines and mobile communications. Co. also provides customized Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions for corporate customers under the T-Systems brand. The Group Headquarters and Shared Services segment comprises cross-segment management functions, real estate services, and mobility solutions, among others.

Iberdrola SA

Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.

NH Hotel Group SA

NH Hotel is engaged in the operation and management of hotels throughout Spain, the Benelux countries, Germany, and South America.

Safran S.A.

Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).

Telefonica SA

Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.

UniCredit S.p.A.

Unicredit is a pan-European commercial banking group based in Italy. Co. is engaged in the provision of in-branch and online corporate and investment banking services, providing customers with access to banks in 14 core markets as well as to an another 18 countries worldwide. Co.'s operations are organized along six business lines: Commercial Banking Italy; CEE Division; CIB; Commercial Banking Germany; Commercial Banking Austria; and Asset Gathering. Co.'s European banking network includes Italy, Germany, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Turkey.

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Sabadell

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