INFORME DIARIO 19 DICIEMBRE (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, BANKINTER, BBVA, EBRO FOODS, ENAGAS, IBERDROLA, PRISA, PROSEGUR CASH, SIEMENS GAMESA. EUROPA: SOCIÈTÈ GÈNÈRALE.Otra sesión de consolidación a la espera de noticias
Sesión de más a menos y con poco volumen en las bolsas europeas a pesar de la apertura alcista de Nueva York y que terminó finalmente sin cambios. En Euro STOXX destacó la mejor evolución de los defensivos liderados por Retail y Alimentación, junto con Bancos, mientras que Construcción, Autos e Industriales terminaron con los mayores retrocesos. Por el lado macro, en Alemania el IFO de diciembre repuntó más de lo esperado y respalda una modesta recuperación del crecimiento y los pedidos de bienes de capital. Tanto en Eurozona como en R. Unido la inflación general se mantuvo en noviembre (vs ligero retroceso esperado en R. Unido), al igual que la subyacente (en lÃnea). En EE.UU. como se esperaba el Congreso aprobó el juicio polÃtico a D. Trump por abuso de poder y obstrucción a la justicia por parte del Senado en 2020 pero que es muy poco probable que progrese ya que los demócratas necesitarÃan el apoyo de 2/3 de la cámara. En Japón, el BoJ mantuvo inalterada la polÃtica monetaria mientras que Kuroda mantuvo un mensaje sesgado hacia una polÃtica monetaria expansiva debido a los riesgos a la baja en el crecimiento.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abrirÃan planas sin grandes catalizadores a favor de subidas. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con ligeras caÃdas (el S&P 500 cerró sin cambios respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 12,28%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con caÃdas (Japón -0,29% y Hong Kong -0,48%).
Hoy reunión del BoE y Banco Central de México. En R. Unido ventas al por menor de noviembre. En EE.UU. balanza por cuenta corriente del 3T’19, Ãndice Fed de Filadelfia de diciembre y la ventas de viviendas de segunda mano de noviembre.
ESPAÑA
BANKINTER. Spin off de LDA para retribuir al accionista de forma extraordinaria. VENDER
Bankinter anunció ayer al cierre el pago de un dividendo en especie, mediante la distribución del 82,6% de LÃnea Directa Aseguradora, en la proporción de 1x1, operación que culminará en sept’20 con un listing. LDA se valora en 1.434 M euros (1,6 euros/acc., en lÃnea con BS(e)) y el accionista recibirá 1.184 M euros (c.19,3% de la capitalización de BKT). La operación le permite a BKT aflorar el valor real de LDA (x3 vs inversión que realizaron y su valor en libros), con impacto reducido en TE (-3% BS(e)) y ligeramente positivo en capital (+5p.b, actual 11,56%). A futuro diluirá la RoTE sostenible en c.-150 p.b. BS(e) (hasta 11% en 2020 BS(e)) y reducirá nuestro P.O. de BKT hasta c.6,10 euros/acc. (-17%). Esperamos una reacción positiva de la cotización, tanto por el “regalo inesperado†al accionista, como por el atractivo de poder monetizar en menos de un año el c.20% del valor del banco, o alternativamente tener una posición en una de las aseguradoras mejor gestionadas y más rentables del mercado español. BKT realizará una presentación a las 09:00.
ENAGÃS. Ampliación de capital sin derecho de 500 M euros (9,3% capitalización) por colocación acelerada
Para financiar parte de la adquisición de Tallgrass (35% de los ~1.400 M euros) que en nuestra opinión, tiene una aportación a valoración neutra si no se asume un delivery exitoso en futuras inversiones (recordamos que paga 15x PER vs 12x que cotiza). Dicho esto, una emisión sin descuento (-5% vs nuestro P.O.) tendrÃa un impacto negativo en nuestro P.O. de -0,4% y cada -1% de descuento adicional tendrÃa un impacto adicional de -0,1%. La operación por lo tanto es negativa para los accionistas actuales porque podrÃa rebajar el BPA hasta -9% (impacto de hasta 65 p.b. de DVD yield hasta 6,9%) pero tiene una nota positiva porque ENAG mantendrÃa su rating (BBB+ según S&P) al mantener invariado su DFN/EBITDA en niveles de 3,8x vs 4,2x sin ampliación.
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.
Bankinter is the parent company of a group engaged in banking activities. Services provided include: investment banking; capital market services; financial services insurance; international services such as foreign exchange transactions and travelers' checks; wholesale corporate banking; and retail and private banking services. Co. offers its products and services through the following channels of distribution: branch network; telephone banking, interactive (software) banking; agents; and Internet banking. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had assets totalling Euro57,332,974,000 and deposits totalling Euro29,966,129,000.
Ebro Puleva is a food manufacturing group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the manufacture and marketing, export and import of sugar, rice, dairy products, and products destined for agriculture development and human and animal consumption. Co.'s brand names include: Panzani®, Ronzoni®, American Beauty®, Skinner®, Lancia®, Catelli®, Healthy Harvest®, etc. in pastas and sauces, Mahatma®, Sucess®, Carolina®, Lustucru®, Taureau Aile®, Oryza®, Bosto®, Reis-Fit®, Riceland®, Danrice®, Risella®, Brillante®, Nomen®, La Cigala® and La Fallera® in the rice sector, Puleva®, Ram® and El Castillo® in the dairy sector, and Azucarera® and Sucran® in the sugar sector.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Prosegur Cash SA, formerly Prosegur Cit Holding SA, is a Spain-based company engaged in the provision of security services. The Company's activities are divided into three business areas: Logistics, Cash management and Outsourcing. The Logistics division focuses on the provision of local and international transport services of cash and other valuable goods. The Cash management division offers counting, processing, custody, preparation and delivery of notes and coins, as well as replenishment of automatic teller machines (ATMs). The Outsourcing division includes a number of support financial services, such as automation of retail operations through self-service cash automatization machines (MAEs), ATMs management, as well as branch forecasting, reconciliation, settlement and credit card support services. The Company operates through own branches and joint ventures in Europe, Central and South America, Africa, Asia and Australia. It operates through Contesta Teleservicios SAU.
Siemens is an electronics products manufacturing group based in India. Co. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing electrical and electronics products and equipments mainly for the power industry and the information and communication industry in India. Co. is also engaged in providing consultation services, providing back office support services and real estate management. Co. operates nine business segments with Healthcare as a separately managed business. Co.'s business segments include: Power and Gas; Wind Power and Renewables; Power Generation Services; Energy Management; Building Technologies; Mobility; Digital Factory; Process Industries and Drives; and Financial Services.
Societe Generale is a universal banking and financial services group based in France. Co. is engaged in operations in areas such as retail banking, corporate and investment banking, financial services, insurance, private banking and asset management. Co.'s three segments are: French Retail Banking (FRB); International Retail Banking & Financial Services (IBFS); and Global Banking and Investor Solutions (GBIS). FRB offers products and services to individual, professional and business customers; IBFS comprises banking networks and consumer finance activities; and GBIS covers global activities of Corporate and Investment Banking. Co. maintains operations across 76 countries globally.
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