Report
Research Department
EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 19 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, ACS, AENA, GRIFOLS, LAR ESPAÑA, MERLIN PROPERTIES.

MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY

Whatever it takes 2
Stock markets continued to fall sharply, despite the stimulus measures taken by central banks and governments. The ECB announced an increase to the QE up to € 750 Bn through the end of the year (in addition to the € 120 Bn), making purchase criteria for sovereign bonds more flexible, especially to control debt markets and peripheral nation risk premiums, stating that if necessary more will be undertaken. The cases of coronavirus in Europe exceeded those in China, and Italy is expected to reach its highest point in one week, with Spain following one week later. In the Euro Stoxx, all the sectors ended with losses, with Utilities and Food the best performers, vs. Basic Materials and Chemicals, which performed the worst. On the macro side, in the euro zone, the final inflation figure confirmed the preliminary data, coming in at 1.2%, at the same level as the core figure. In the US, February’s building permits and housing starts confirmed the preliminary data. The Senate approved a first package of US$ 100 Bn to fight the coronavirus within the US$ 1.2 Tn plan announced by Trump on Tuesday.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with moderate gains, without a clear direction, although volatility will continue to be high. Currently, S&P futures are down -2.09% (the S&P 500 ended +2.31% higher vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 76.45%). Asian markets are falling (Japan -1.04% and Hong Kong -2.09%).
Today in the US we will learn March’s Philadelphia Fed index, weekly jobless claims and February’s second-hand home sales. Debt auctions: Spain (€ 4.5 Bn in 3Y, 7Y, 10Y and 13Y bonds), France (€ 8.75 Bn in 3Y, 5Y and 7Y bonds and 8Y and 10Y I/L bonds) and Ireland (5M t-bills).


COMPANY NEWS

MERLIN/LAR, BUY
MRL has announced that in an initial estimate of the impact that COVID-19 could have on its results, and considering the commercial policy in rent payments, which seeks to share the burden of the challenging current situation with tenants in locales and businesses that cannot open to the public, and assuming that the orderly closing by authorities will last until 31 July, the impact on total gross rental revenues expected in 2020 would be less than 10%.
The impact on the cash flow is not big, but that was expected given that retail, which is the most affected segment, accounts for 19% of rents, and within retail 23% of tenants will remain open. Additionally, the estimate from not opening until August seems conservative. The company has stated that the rest of the segments should not see their rents reduced over the coming months. Another story is what could happen with asset valuations if, as is happening on the markets, the risk premium rises and the outlook for growth in rents worsens.
Read across for LRE. Taking a rough approach, if we were to extrapolate these forecasts to LRE, whose portfolio is 100% retail, the impact would be ~40%-45% of 2020 rents. That said, we think the impact on LRE will be smaller, as we do not have to assume that it will apply the same rental burden sharing policy, that it has the same client mix and that centres will remain closed until Aug’20. We understand that it is unclear if tenants are exempt from paying rents for a sudden closing, and a hypothetical dispute could end up in courts.
Underlyings
Acerinox SA

Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.

Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA

ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.

Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

CaixaBank SA

Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA

International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.

Lar Espana Real Estate SOCIMI SA

Lar Espana Real Estate SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the operation of retail Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The Company specializes in acquiring, managing and renting real estate assets within the Spanish market. Its business activities are divided into three segments: Shopping Centers, Offices, as well as Logistics. The Shopping Centers area is responsible for operation of a number of shopping malls, namely Txingudi, Las Huertas, Albacenter, Anec Blau, Hiper Albacenter, and Nuevo Alisal, among others. The Offices segment invests in office properties, such as Arturo Soria, Cardenal Marcelo Spinola, Egeo and Eloy Gonzalo. The Logistics division focuses on managing logistics warehouses, including Alovera I and Alovera II. The Company also owns a plot for residential properties development. It is a parent of a number of entities, such as Lar Espana Inversion Logistica SA, Gran Via Centrum Holdings SAU, Global Noctua and Puerta Maritima Ondara.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI S.A.

Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.

Provider
Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Research Department

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Sabadell

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch