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IBERIAN DAILY 27 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, AEDAS, CELLNEX, IAG.

Central Banks set the pace for the stock markets
The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic (Deutsche Bank dragged down the European banking sector on Friday) and rate hikes (after the latest increases by the Fed, the BoE and the Swiss Central Bank) captured investors’ attention. Nonetheless, the Euro STOXX 50 ended the week with a rise of around +2%, whereas the Ibex35 ended up +1%, nearing the technical 8,800-point level. The best-performing sectors within the Euro STOXX were Consumer Goods and Household Goods, whereas Real Estate and Construction Materials were the week’s worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the United Kingdom, retail sales recovered more than expected in February, as did March’s consumer confidence. In the Euro zone, the Manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, whereas the Services PMI climbed far above expectations (55.6 vs. 52.7 previously and 52.5 consensus). In the US, durable goods orders contracted unexpectedly in February, whereas the Manufacturing and Services PMIs rose more than expected. Separately, N. Kashkari warned that the banking crisis brings closer the slowdown scenario in the US, whereas the authorities are studying the possibility of extending the emergency lending facility to Banks to help Frist Republic. In Mexico, January’s IGAE economic activity index rose above expectations (+0.56% vs. +0.10% expected and 0.35% previously). In China, the annual slowdown in industrial profits aggravated in February to around -23%.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gain of as much as +1.0%, with banks trying to recover part of the losses reported last week. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.5% (the S&P 500 ended +0.6% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 21.7). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.47%).
Today we will learn in Germany March’s IFO, in the Euro zone February’s M3 supply, and in Mexico February’s trade balance. In debt auctions: Germany (€ 6 Bn in 6M and 12M T-bills).