EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 04 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS.

The Euro STOXX 50 nears 3,900 points
It was a second session of gains for European stock markets thanks to the improvements in supply chains, although the resistance on the macro level is concerning due to the possibility that the ECB will speed up monetary restrictions. Thus, in the Euro STOXX, Banks and Travel&Leisure led the gains, with Energy and Basic Materials falling more than -1%. On the macro side, in Spain unemployment fell by -43,727 (worst December since the financial crisis began), and thus 2022 ended with 2,837,635 unemployed, a 15-year low, although only 471,000 new jobs were created. In Germany, December’s unemployment fell unexpectedly, showing the strength of the job market and leaving the unemployment rate at 5.5%. The number of active workers reached a high since before the reunification of Germany in 1990, with a total of 45.6 million workers. However, December’s preliminary inflation fell significantly, and more than expected (9.6% vs. 10% previously) thanks to the govt. aid for energy. By contrast, the core figure rose one tenth of a percent to 5.2%. With this in mind, M. Kazaks (ECB) suggested significant rate hikes in the February and March meetings, which the market did not welcome. In the UK, December’s manufacturing PMIs fell less than expected. In the US, November’s construction spending rose unexpectedly. From the Fed, W. Dudley suggested that the recession will not be severe. In Japan, December’s final manufacturing PMI rose by +0.1%. On the political front, PM F. Kishida will debate with the next BoJ governor the possibility of revising the 2% inflation target, according to Japanese press, whereas H. Kuroda reiterated the current dovish monetary policy. In China, the Govt. is studying possible aid measures for the construction sector after making access to financing easier for tech companies.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would continue to rise following the decisions made by Chinese authorities. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.045% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.1% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 22.90). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.4%).
Today in euro zone we will learn December’s final PMI, in the UK November’s mortgage lending and December’s final services PMI and in the US December’s manufacturing ISM and the Fed minutes from the 14 December meeting.