EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 06 FEBRUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, GRIFOLS, IBERDROLA, SANTANDER, UNICAJA.

IBEX unable to remain above 10,000 points
The week kicked off with losses on both sides of the Atlantic, dragged down by the rising interest rates resulting from the speech this weekend by J. Powell (ruling out rate cuts in March’24) and the strong non-manufacturing ISM data. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were defensive ones like Pharma, Food and Household Goods, whereas Basic Materials and Retail ended with the worst relative performance. On the macro side, the OECD raised its growth forecast for Spain by +0.1pp to 1.5% in 2024, but cut that of the euro zone by -0.3pp to 0.6% (due mainly to Germany and France, where the growth forecasts were cut -0.3pp and -0.2pp, respectively, to 0.3%). In the euro zone, February’s SENTIX economic sentiment improved for the fourth straight month, reaching a high since April’23. In Spain the services PMI rose as expected, remaining at a level consistent with expansion. In the US we continued to have positive surprises on the macro level, with January’s services ISM rising more than expected (with the prices paid subindex rising to the level from Feb’23). Meanwhile, the latest Fed credit survey (Senior Loan Officer Survey) suggests stricter credit restrictions and lower demand in 4Q’23. In China, authorities have restricted quantitative trading betting on short positions by both domestic and some foreign investors, while the sovereign Chinese fund warned that it will increase ETF purchases on the Chinese stock market. Separately, Huawei and SMIC would begin to produce 5nm chips this year. In US business results, Estée Lauder, Caterpillar and McDonald’s beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains of up to +0.4%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.08% (the S&P 500 ended +0.12% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +3.03%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.53%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn December’s retail sales and the inflation expectations survey from the ECB. In US business results, Linde, Eli Lilly, Gartner and Willis Towers Watson, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

UNICAJA: Better 4Q’23 results on the operating level and greater impairment in repossessed assets. BUY.
Good 4Q’23 results on the operating level: +5% in revenues (+4% in NII/ +3% in fee revenues) and -22% in legal and lending provisions (COR at 27bps in the 4Q’23 vs. 30 3Q). The +70% growth in one-off repossessed asset provisions stands out (€ 207 M vs. € 122 expected) with a -31% NPA reduction and with the NPL ratio falling to 3.1% vs. 3.4% as of 9M’23. 14.7% CET1 vs. 14.2% as of 9M’23. 5.3% ROTE’23 vs. 5.7% 9M’23. The bank proposed a € 0.05/sh. dividend in cash’23, in line (+3%; 5.7% yield) and a € 100 M buyback programme (3.8% capital). We expect a favourable reaction to these results and the bank’s 2024 guidance in today’s Conference Call at 9:00 (CET) to provide a positive surprise.