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IBERIAN DAILY 07 NOVEMBER + 3Q'25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AMADEUS, CELLNEX, IAG, SACYR.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Doubts persist
With the results campaign entering the final stretch, the main European indices closed with losses, with the IBEX standing out as the best performer, remaining at around 16,100. In the STOXX 600, Basic Materials and Banks were the best-performing sectors, with Media and Consumer Goods falling the most. On the macro side, in the euro zone, September’s retail sales rose more than expected. In Germany, industrial output rose less than expected in October, reflecting the fragility of the manufacturing sector, whereas in Spain growth was more solid than expected. In the UK, the BoE kept interest rates at 4.0%, as expected, although the decision was a very close one (5 voting maintain, 4 voting -25bps cut). In China, exports fell unexpectedly in October for the first time since February, and imports rose less than expected. In Japan, household spending grew less than expected in September. In US business results, Under Armour and Airbnb beat expectations and Marriott released disappointing earnings.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains and with technology groups recovering after the profit taking from the last few days. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.2% and Japan’s Nikkei -1.2%).
Today in Mexico we will learn October’s inflation. In US business results, KKR and Groupon, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AMADEUS. 3Q’25 Results above expectations. OVERWEIGHT
3Q’25 Results above expectations in EBITDA (+8.2% vs. ~+5% BS(e) and consensus) thanks to higher margin. Sales (+5.6%) also came in slightly above expectations (+5% BS(e ) and +4.7% consensus) due to airline distribution (+6.2%) vs. ~+5% expected) and Technological Solutions (+5.3%vs. ~+4% expected).The company kept its Guidance’25 unchanged. We foresee a neutral or slightly positive market reception bearing in mind the poor recent share price performance (-3% in the past month vs. +3.6% Ibex).

CELLNEX. Solid results in line with expectations. 2026 shareholder remuneration raised. OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 sales reached € 995 M (+5.7% organic) and EBITDAaL € 630 M (+7.5% organic), with a margin rising to 63.4% (from 61.9% in 3Q’24). RLFCF came in at € 468 M (vs. € 470 M consensus and € 460 M BS(e); +9.4% organic pro forma). 3Q’25 FCF totalled € 187 M (vs. € 130 M consensus and € 160 M BS(e)). CLNX has raised the 2026 shareholder remuneration by +25% from € 800 M to € 1 Bn (+5.4% yield): € 500 M will come via cash dividend (expected) and € 500 M through share buybacks. The company reiterated its guidance for both 2025 and 2027. We expect a positive reaction. In 2025 the share price has fallen -9.5% in absolute terms vs. +39% IBEX).

SACYR. 3Q’25 results above expectations on the operating level and very much in line in cash. OVERWEIGHT
3Q’25 results beat expectations in EBITDA (€ 371 M vs. € 357 M BS(e) and € 349 M consensus; +28% vs. 3Q’24) with operating CF coming in very much in line, totalling € 275 M on the quarter (vs. € 286 M BS(e); +19% vs. 3Q’24); +74% EBITDA conversion vs. +80% BS(e)). Recourse NFD rose by € 47 M to € 344 M, fully in line with our € 342 M estimate BS(e)), but not yet including the divestiture from Colombia (€ ~270 M) expected in the 4Q’25. We do not foresee a relevant impact from these results. In 2025 the share price has climbed +19% (-20% vs. IBEX).