EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, CHANGES IBEX, ENERGY SECTOR, REPSOL.

Market falls ahead of ECB meeting
Global stock markets once again fell in view of the rise in long-term debt curves and the signs of a downturn in the macroeconomy. In the Euro STOXX, the worst-performing sectors were Insurance and Travel & Leisure, whereas Retail (thanks to the strong results from Inditex) and Energy had the biggest gains. On the macro side, the OECD cut 2022 GDP growth estimates for the euro zone by -1.7pp to 2.6% and 1.6% in 2023. In Spain growth was lowered -1.5pp to 4.1% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023, whereas it estimates inflation will be around 8.1% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023. Lastly, in the US growth would stand at 2.6% (-1.7pp) in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. As for macro data, in Germany April’s industrial output rose less than expected. In the euro zone the final 1Q’22 GDP was revised and ended with 0.6% growth QoQ. Separately, the EU Parliament has confirmed the ban on selling new gasoline cars starting in 2035. In China the trade surplus beat expectations in May, rising above forecasts in both exports and imports. On another note, Shanghai has placed a new district on lockdown. On the geopolitical side, Russia and Turkey have reached an agreement in principle to export food from Ukraine, although Russia’s demands (to alleviate western sanctions) could hinder the agreement.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of around -0.5% awaiting the ECB’s decision, while there continue to be setbacks to growth (Freeport LNG plant closed, oil worker strike in Norway, etc.) Currently, S&P futures are unchanged (the S&P 500 ended down -0.85% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 23.96). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.93% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.43%).
Today the ECB will meet. In Mexico and Brazil will learn May’s inflation and in the US weekly jobless claims. In debt auctions: Italy (€ 6.5 Bn in 12M t-bills).


COMPANY NEWS

CHANGES IBEX 35: Technical Advisory Committee to meet on 09 June. We expect changes.
At today’s closing bell the IBEX Technical Advisory Committee will meet for its first annual meeting (the next one is to be held in December). The best-positioned companies to enter the IBEX would be Sacyr and Acciona Energía (listed since July’21, although with limited liquidity and with its parent company Acciona already on the index, which should go against its possibilities), whereas Almirall and CIE (in that order) would be candidates to be removed. There could also be a weight change in Rovi (increasing its weight).