IBERIAN DAILY 13 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, SPANISH REITS.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
The longest shutdown ever comes to its end
European stock markets continued to welcome the end of the US shutdown, climbing >+1% and returning to their new annual highs. In the STOXX 600, Utilities and banks led the gains, whereas Household (for the second consecutive session) and Energy posted the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany, the final inflation data confirmed October’s 2.3% level. From the ECB, Kocher (Austria’s hawkish governor) suggested that deposit rate cuts >2% should call for the materialization of risks about growth, with the latter dragging down inflation. In France, the unemployment rate reached 7.5% in the 3Q, returning to 2021 highs. In the US, as expected, the Congress and later D. Trump approved the preliminary funding law to end the shutdown. On another note, D. Trump announced he will cut tariffs to reduce food prices. From the Fed, R. Bostic made public his resignation by Feb’26. Meanwhile, BoFA Institute warned that household lending rose in October at a record pace since early 2024, led by the high class . In US business results, TransDigm and Cisco Systems beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains of +0.2%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.20% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.92 % and Japan’s Nikkei +0.27%).
Today in the UK we will learn the 3Q’25 GDP, in the euro zone September’s industrial output, in Brazil September’s retail sales and in the US October’s general and core inflation. In US business results, Walt Disney and Applied Materials, among others, will release their earnings today.
COMPANY NEWS
SPANISH REITS. MRL T.P. € 15.55/sh. (+16% upside), COL € 8.01/sh. (+45% upside). Both OVERWEIGHT.
Both COL’s and MRL’s operating performance (occupancy and rents) continues to be positive, and we expect this to continue in the future, although for different reasons: in MRL due to strong demand and in COL to the scant supply in Paris. The growth rates we estimate are attractive: MRL could grow at a CAGR’24-28 of +14% in EPS vs. +10% for COL. In NTA, we expect +13% growth in MRL and +5% in COL. In both cases, and especially in MRL, the pipeline will remain very important, with investments over the next four years of € 3.11 Bn (26% of GAV; in COL the figure is 6%). We reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation in both companies.
ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.
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