EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 FEBRUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, AEDAS.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Back to the previous trend
The correction only lasted one day on stock markets and in sovereign debt following the poor US inflation data. Yesterday stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic were back in green numbers (except the IBEX, which was flat), with debt curves stabilising. In the STOXX 600 almost all the sectors ended with gains, led by Technology and Industrials, whereas Food and Basic Materials ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone the second reading of the 4Q’23 GDP confirmed the preliminary data of 0.1% YoY and employment growth remained at 1.3% YoY. Meanwhile, December’s industrial output rose unexpectedly. From the ECB, both P. Lane and H. de Cos stated that rate cuts will come depending on the macro data. In Germany, the Govt. will cut expected growth in GDP’25 to 1.0% from the previous 1.5%. In Japan, the 4Q’23 GDP fell unexpectedly, confirming a recessive scenario in the country, with very weak consumption levels. In US business results, Williams beat expectations, IQVIA Global Payments and Heinz were in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of up to +0.5% awaiting the US macro data releases. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (the S&P 500 closed up +0.70% vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 closed, Japan’s Nikkei +1.21%).
Today in the UK we will learn the 4Q’23 GDP and December’s industrial output, in Spain final inflation for January and in the US Empire manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed and residential confidence index for February, retail sales and industrial output for January and weekly jobless claims. In US business results, CBRE and Zebra Technologies, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AEDAS, BUY
Results are slightly below our sales and EBITDA expectations although in any case they are not representative of what we foresee for the full year given the delivery calendar this year, with a significant bias on the last quarter (Jan-March’24 period). 9M’23 vs. 9M022 Results: Sales: € 444 M (+24% vs. +28% BS(e) and +25% consensus); EBITDA: € 43 M (+21% vs. +28% BS(e) and +28% consensus).As for presales, AEDAS had already made public this data some weeks ago, and thus there are not any surprises: in the 3Q on a standalone basis the company sold 615 units (+33%) and 1,829 units in the 9M worth € 681 M (+10% vs. 9M’22). As the company reiterates its revenue target for the full year (around € 1 Bn vs. € 444 M 9M), we believe we should play down the relevance of the data reported this quarter. Although the company has delivered 1,147 homes through 9M’23 (vs. the target of ~3,000 for the full year), it mentioned that as of Dec’23 it had 1,900 units finished and to be delivered. In this regard, it plans to deliver >1,800 homes in the last quarter.