EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 20 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, BANKING SECTOR.

Digesting the message from Central Banks
Global stock markets saw sight drops in a session without relevant drivers and marked by the US holiday. In the Euro STOXX, Banks and Energy were among the few sectors ending with gains whereas Chemicals and Construction were the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in Spain, the BoS raised the GDP growth forecast’23 to 2.3% (+0.7pp vs. previous level) thanks to a stronger start to the year than expected, cutting inflation to 3.2% (-0.5pp) based on the drop in energy prices. In 2024 and 2025, the BoS foresees 2.2% growth (vs. 2.3% previously) and 2.1%, respectively. In the euro zone, from the ECB, I. Schnabel and P. Kazimir were in favour of further rate rises whereas P. Lane left the door open to halt rises after July. Separately, EU energy ministers did not manage to reach an agreement regarding the new energy market rules due to differences in coal subsidies, but also in renewables and nuclear. In the US, June’s NAHB home index climbed more than expected, standing at June’22 levels. In Japan, April’s final industrial output was raised slightly. In China, the PBoC, as expected, cut the 1Y and 5Y loan rate to 3.55% and 4.2%, respectively. On the geopolitical side, in the end the US Secretary of State, A. Blinken, met with Chinese PM Xi Jinpeng and opened the door to new meetings to avoid a greater breakdown in relations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with some bearish bias and with growth being slightly penalised. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.12% (the S&P 500 was closed for holiday). Volatility in the US will start today at 14.19. Asian stock markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -0.10%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.18%).
Today in the US we will learn May’s construction permits and housing starts. As for auctions, Germany will issue € 5.5 Bn in bonds due 2025.