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IBERIAN DAILY 23 FEBRUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, FERROVIAL, IAG.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The market welcomes NVIDIA’s results
European stock markets saw significant gains, fuelled by the new record highs hit by the S&P500. In the STOXX 600, Technology (welcoming NVIDIA’s good results) and Autos (driven by Mercedes) led gains, whereas defensive sectors such as Food and Utilities, hit by the earnings released and the market sentiment, ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, February’s manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, whereas the services PMI recovered more than expected, returning to levels of 50. The ECB minutes underscore that most members consider it is too soon to discuss rate cuts. In Mexico, the YoY growth in December’s IGAE activity index moderated less than expected. In the US weekly jobless claims moderated unexpected, existing home sales improved more than expected in January and the manufacturing PMI recovered more than expected. From the Fed, P. Jefferson showed his opposition to cut rates by the end of the year, warning about the risks of cutting rates too soon. In US business Results, Moderna beat expectations and Pioneer released disappointing figures.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains of up to +0.2% Currently, S&P futures are up +0.04% (the S&P 500 ended +0.47% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.15%, Japan’s Nikkei is closed).
Today in Germany we will learn the final 4Q’23 GDP and February’s IFO. In US business results, CocaCola, Warner Bros and Onex, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

FERROVIAL, BUY
The 407 ETR toll road (43.23% FER; 40% of our T.P.) has just released its 4Q’23 earnings, showing sales and EBITDA -1% and -3% below 4Q’19 levels (vs. +1% and +0% BS(e)). Traffic came in -7.2% below 4Q’19 levels (vs. -3% BS(e)), whereas average revenue per trip fell by -0.7% vs. 4Q’22.
The 4Q’23 results are slightly below our forecasts, showing traffic slowdown vs. previous quarters (-7% in 4Q’23 vs. 4Q’19, vs. -4% in 3Q’23 and -5% in 2Q’23). On another note, there is no dividend proposal this quarter, although we do not rule out a catch up over the coming quarters once it has higher traffic visibility after the toll rate rise announced for 2024 (+13% on average BS(e)).