IBERIAN DAILY 30 MARCH (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS, BANKIA, BANKING SECTOR, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, CONSTRUCTION SECTOR, GRIFOLS, IBERPAPEL, INMOBILIARIA DEL SUR, MÃSMÓVIL.MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY
Profit taking on stock markets, and we have reached the peak of the curve in Europe, but where is the US?
The skyrocketing cases of coronavirus in the US and Canada have led global markets back into the red and to a toughening of confinement measures in several countries (in Spain only activities considered essential can have workers present in the workplace). Central Banks, especially in Asia over the past few hours, continue to announce additional liquidity measures. In this regard, S&P expects the US economy to shrink -1.3% YoY in 2020 (vs. the previous 1.9%), whereas the OECD expects every month of quarantine to subtract up to -2pp from European economies. In the Euro Stoxx, the best-performing sectors were Pharma and Retail (-2%) vs. Travel & Leisure and Banks (which fell more than -6%). On the macro side, in the US February’s real personal outlays rose somewhat less than expected, jeopardising the expected 1.8% QoQ growth in consumption. Separately, March’s final U. of Michigan consumer confidence fell more than expected. Lastly, medical experts warn that the US could end up with more than 100,000 deaths from coronavirus.
What we expect for today
We expect a slightly bullish opening, although volatility will remain high. Currently, S&P futures are up +1.42% (the S&P 500 ended practically flat vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 65.54%). Asian markets are falling (Japan -3.14% and Hong Kong -0.59%).
Today in Spain we will learn March’s preliminary inflation figure, in the euro zone March’s economic climate indicator, in Japan February’s preliminary industrial output and in China March’s manufacturing and services PMIs.
COMPANY NEWS
BANKIA. Reduction to dividend’20 and change to remuneration policy’18-20. SELL
In the AGM held on Friday, BKIA changed its dividend policy. The bank will move the dividend’19 forward (€ 0.11576/sh.; +0% vs. 2018 and 11% yield) to the 2nd of April (vs. the previous 15th of April), but it will reduce the 2020 dividend: (i) BKIA will take a cautious view on the ordinary dividend (which was expected to at least maintain that of 2019) and (ii) the extraordinary dividend’20 is shelved (paid out from excess capital above 12% CET1). This means the dividend proposal from the 2018-20 Plan of paying out € 2.5 Bn is cancelled. That said, the bank still intends to pay out all the excess capital above 12% CET1 (no timeframe given) when the regulator allows it to. This move is in line with those made by other banks, and the fact it will not reach the € 2.5 Bn total payout was already expected.
Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.
Bankia is a financial institution based in Spain. Co. is primarily engaged in operations in the banking sector. Co.'s business operations are structured into seven areas: Retail Banking, Business Banking, Private Banking, Asset Management and Bancassurance, Capital Markets and Holdings. Co. offers financial products and services to various customer segments, such as individuals, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, as well as public and private institutions. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets and total customer deposits of Euro233,648,603,000 and Euro106,806,698,000 respectively.
CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.
Iberpapel Gestion is engaged in the manufacture, wholesale distribution, sale and export of pulp and printing and writing paper. In addition, Co. maintains forestry activities, including the cultivation of timberlands.
Inmobiliaria del Sur SA (Insur) is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company is primarily involved in the construction, acquisition, management, promotion, rental and sale of residential and non-residential properties, which are located in Cordoba, Malaga, Cadiz, Madrid, Huelva, and Seville, among others. Its main activities are divided into three areas: Housing, Offices & Commercials and Parking. Furthermore, the Company is a parent of Parking Insur SAU, Hacienda la Cartuja SA, Coopinsur SAU, Inversiones Sevillanas SAI, Bellasur Patrimonial SA, Innovacion en Desarrollos Urbanos del Sur SA, and Viasur Soluciones Inmobiliarias SLU, among others, which together form Insur Group.
Masmovil Ibercom SA, formerly World Wide Web Ibercom SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the telecommunication sector. The Company focuses on the sale and distribution services for Internet, Data Center and Telecommunications. The Company's product and services portfolio comprises Internet access through Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) and Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line (SDSL) technologies, Internet domains and Domains Management and Registration Service through IberDNS application, Web hosting, virtual servers, dedicated servers, telephony services and routers. The Company also offers collocation services through two Internet Data Centers located in Madrid and San Sebastian. It operates through subsidiaries, such as Embou Nuevas Tecnologias SL and Ebesis Sistemas SL, among others. The Company owns a number of brand names, such as Pepephone, Yoigo and Llamaya.
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