INFORME DIARIO 26 FEBRERO (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: AEDAS, AENA, CELLNEX, DOMINION, LIBERBANK, NH HOTELES, REE. EUROPA: DANONE.EE.UU. no se salva del Coronavirus
Cuarta jornada consecutiva de caÃdas en Europa, donde la incertidumbre por el rápido contagio del coronavirus ha provocado pérdidas del -2,0%. EE.UU. también acabó con fuerte pérdidas por la misma razón. En el Euro STOXX, nuevamente cerraron todos los sectores en negativo, liderados por Bancos y Seguros, mientras que los sectores que menos cayeron fueron Bienes de Consumo y Media. Por el lado macro, en Europa, F. Villeroy apuntó que el coronavirus tendrá un impacto negativo pero temporal sobre el crecimiento, y que la polÃtica monetaria podrÃa no ser la mejor respuesta a una alerta sanitaria. En EE.UU. la confianza del consumidor avanzó menos de lo esperado (fuerte revisión a la baja del dato anterior) pero se mantiene en niveles elevados. Desde la Fed, R. Kaplan no apoya nuevos recortes de tipos mientras que R. Clarida espera que la inflación se sitúe por encima del objetivo. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. Home Depot y Macy´s mejor de lo esperado.
Qué esperamos para hoy
La fuerte sobreventa de los últimos dÃas de momento no justifica el rebote, aunque esperamos una apertura algo más estable. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,35% (el S&P 500 cerró con caÃdas del -1,36% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 27,85%). Los mercados asiáticos que están abiertos cotizan con caÃdas (Japón -0,79% y Hong Kong -0,81%). Hoy en EE.UU. la venta de viviendas nuevas. En Rdos. empresariales en EE.UU. Booking Holdings, Lowe´s Cos y Marriot International entre otros. Hoy, el Tesoro italiano y griego emitirán letras a 3M (6.500 M euros y 650 M euros, respectivamente) mientras que el alemán colocará bonos a 5 años (4.000 M euros).
ESPAÑA
AEDAS, Rdos 2019. COMPRAR
Anunció Rdos 2019 (de momento no tenemos el desglose completo) que muestra ingresos de 311 M euros (vs 318 M euros consenso vs 316 M euros BSe) con EBITDA de 56 M euros (vs 57 M euros consenso vs 54 M euros BSe). Medido en volumen de entregas, la compañÃa se queda un -20% por debajo de su previsión (850 uds vs 1.055 uds previstas por la compañÃa en su plan de negocio vs 850 uds consenso) debido a retrasos relacionados con la nueva normativa de hipotecas, entre otras cosas. Como se puede observar, el consenso ya anticipaba el menor volumen de entregas por lo que no deberÃa sorprender. Adelanta un año el dividendo y pagará 1 euro/acc. (5,2% yield) con cargo a 2020 en dos pagos (noviembre’20 y el otro en 2021). Además multiplica su programa de recompra de acciones x3 desde 50 M euros (ha comprado 62%) hasta 150 M euros (16% capitalización) y se da un plazo de 2,5 años hasta septiembre de 2022.
Los Rdos están alineados con nuestras estimaciones en EBITDA aunque son ligeramente más bajos que los del consenso. Respecto a la menor cifra de entregas vs previsión de la compañÃa (925 uds vs 1.055 Aedas) por retrasos relacionados con la nueva normativa de hipotecas creemos que es negativo aunque ya deberÃa estar descontado por el mercado. Adicionalmente, entendemos que las casas ya están terminadas y serán entregadas en los primeros dos meses de 2020.
AENA. Rdos. 2019 en lÃnea, revisan al alza el guidance de tráfico (ex–coronavirus). VENDER
Rdos. 2019 en lÃnea con lo previsto en EBITDA (+4,1% vs +4,5% BS(e) y +4,0% consenso), donde los márgenes se han visto ligeramente erosionados (61,4% vs 61,5% en 2018), ante los mayores costes de explotación y de personal (efectos ya conocidos). Con todo, esto se ve parcialmente compensado con la buena dinámica de los ingresos comerciales (27% ventas) que siguen creciendo a niveles saludables (+8,1%) ante el aumento de las RMG. Además, la compañÃa ha revisado al alza el guidance’20 de crecimiento de tráfico al +1,9% (vs +1,1% antes y +2,8% BS(e)), si bien dicha cifra no recogerÃa un impacto potencial del coronavirus en el tráfico aéreo. Con estas cifras AENA espera un crecimiento de los ingresos en 2020 del +4% (vs +2,3% consenso) con una mejora del EBITDA del +1% (vs +1,2% consenso).
En definitiva, resultados sin grandes sorpresas, que vuelven a poner de manifiesto la elevada visibilidad del negocio de la compañÃa (principal foco de valor de la acción), donde la única duda estará en los comentarios que puedan aportar en la Conference Call (13:00 h) en cuanto al impacto al que podrÃan tener que hacer frente por el coronavirus (algo que no estarÃa recogido actualmente en sus números).
GLOBAL DOMINION. Rdos. 4T’19 sólidos y en lÃnea, esperamos reacción positiva tras castigo. COMPRAR
El EBITDA creció un +26% (vs +24% consenso y +27% BS(e)) impulsado por unas ventas mejores (+16,4% vs +13,4% consenso), que destacaron por incluir un crecimiento orgánico del +11,5% (+8,5% en el año), muy por encima de su guidance de +7% (+5% incluido en su plan ’19-22). El BDI creció un +33%, lo que mantiene a DOM bien posicionada para cumplir su objetivo de multiplicar por 2x su BDI en 2022 (64 M euros). Buenas noticias a nivel de caja, que cerró en 113 M euros (vs 115 M euros BS(e)), mostrando una destacada recuperación de 23 M euros a nivel de circulante en 2S’19. Aunque los Rdos. cumplen con lo esperado, son buenos y considerando el performance en los últimos 3 meses (-5,8% vs IBEX) apostamos por una acogida positiva.
NH HOTELES. Rdos. mejores de lo esperado. No aportan guidance’20. Conf call a las 12:00h. COMPRAR
Rdos. mejores de lo esperado en operativo gracias a los ingresos (el Revpar se acelera en 4T’19 hasta el +5,4% vs +3% previsto y +3% de 3T’19) por Europa. El EBITDA ex IFRS queda por encima de lo esperado (294 M euros vs objetivo NH 285 M euros) y en lÃnea con consenso y BS(e)). No aporta guidance ni perspectivas para 2020. NH ya recoge un escenario de incertidumbre ligado al Covid-19 (cae -11% en 2 dÃas; -8% vs IBEX) pero a pesar de que los Rdos. aportan confianza la falta de guidance resta visibilidad.
EUROPA
DANONE. Rdos. 2019 en lÃnea, buena evolución LfL en ventas 4T’19 pero rebajan guidance’20 por China. COMPRAR
Buena evolución en ventas 4T’19 con un LfL del +4,1% (vs +2,9% en 3T’19 y +3,5% consenso) por Nutrición Especializada (~31% ventas; +10,2% LfL) y un mejor comportamiento en Lácteos (~53% ventas; +1,5% LfL). En operativo los Rdos. se han situado en lÃnea con un margen EBIT del 15,2% (+76 pbs vs 2018 y vs objetivo de DANO de >15%). De cara a 2020, rebajan el objetivo de LfL en ventas desde el +4%/+5% hasta el +2%/+4% (vs +4% BS(e) y +3,5% consenso) y de margen EBIT ~16% hasta >15% (vs 16,1% BS(e) y 15,9% consenso) por mayores inversiones y el impacto del coronavirus (China ~10% ventas). A pesar de la positiva evolución en ventas 4T’19, esperamos acogida negativa por la rebaja de objetivos que nos llevarÃa a rebajar un -6% en P.O. dejando aún un potencial superior al +25%.
Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Bayer is a life sciences group based in Germany. Co.'s operations are organized along three divisions: Pharmaceuticals (engaged in prescription pharmaceuticals for cardiology and women's healthcare); Consumer Health (engaged in non-prescription products in dermatology, dietary supplement, analgesic, gastrointestinal, allergy, cold and flu, foot care, sun protection and cardiovascular risk prevention categories); and CropScience (engaged in the development of seeds and plant traits; crop protection; and for gardens, the green industry and non-agricultural pest control). Co. also maintains an Animal Health business unit engaged in the development of products for farm and companion animals.
Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Iberpapel Gestion is engaged in the manufacture, wholesale distribution, sale and export of pulp and printing and writing paper. In addition, Co. maintains forestry activities, including the cultivation of timberlands.
Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi is engaged in the sale of its own pharmaceutical products and the distribution of other products for which it holds licenses granted by other laboratories for specific periods, in accordance with the terms and conditions contained in the agreements entered into with said laboratories.
Gestevision Telecinco is a television network company based in Spain. Co. heads a group of dependent companies, which form the Telecinco Group. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the management and commercial exploitation of a television network. Co.'s television network acquires, produces, and distributes audiovisual content. Co. also sells the network advertising airtime, carried out by its subsidiary. In addition, Co. is involved in the sale of other advertising products; production of news programs; the production and sale of audiovisual property rights; and teleshopping.
Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.
NH Hotel is engaged in the operation and management of hotels throughout Spain, the Benelux countries, Germany, and South America.
Red Electrica is engaged in the transmission of electrical energy, the operation of the system and the management of the transmission network in the Spanish electricity system. In addition, through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, holding and management of foreign securities, co-ordination of international exchanges, provision of telecommunications services for third parties, provision of consultancy, engineering and construction services outside the Spanish electricity system, securing of funds, carrying out of financial transactions and provision of financial services.
Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).
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